Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for May, 2015

House 2016: Gridlock Ahead for a Possible Clinton Administration?

She would likely be first Democratic president to never hold the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If Hillary Clinton wins the White House, there’s a decent chance that she will achieve a historic first, but not the one everybody talks about. Clinton could become the first Democratic president in the party’s nearly two century-long history* to never control the House of Representatives while she’s in office. That’s not a firm prediction, […]

Senate 2016: Sorting Out the Democrats’ Best Targets

Johnson falls, Toomey rises, in our latest ratings

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Former Sen. Russ Feingold’s (D) long-expected decision to challenge Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in a 2016 rematch crystallized for us that Johnson is the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the country. But it also helped put the other top Senate races into context. First of all, let’s re-set the scene. Map 1 shows Senate Class […]

Governors 2015-2016: Republicans Lose Edge in Kentucky

Intra-party divisions causing early problems for GOP in red states

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The potential for Republicans to build on their already-gaudy collection of state governorships — they hold 31 of 50 — was rooted in their red state opportunities among the 15 states being contested this year and next year. Democrats are defending open seats in Kentucky this year, and Missouri and West Virginia next year. These […]

Democrats 2016: Sanders Now Clinton’s Chief Rival

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Inevitable.” That’s the word often used to describe Hillary Clinton and the 2016 Democratic nomination. Can anyone beat her? Anything’s possible, but the odds appear quite low. Still, her most threatening intraparty opposition could prove to be a man who isn’t even technically a Democrat (yet, anyway): independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a self-identified […]

“Just a Kid From (Insert Small Town Here)”

Test your knowledge of the little places that produce presidents

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Hope is not only a good thing, as Andy Dufresne says in The Shawshank Redemption, but it’s also a small town of about 10,000 people in Southwest Arkansas, about 30 miles northeast of Texarkana. Oh, and it’s also the hometown of one president, Bill Clinton, and another who aspires (Hopes?) to also win the office, […]

Answers: Presidential Candidates’ Small-Town Roots

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Here are the answers to our quiz about which small towns are associated with which past and present presidential candidates: A-6 — Democrats tried to humanize the egg-headed Adlai Stevenson by presenting him as “The Man from Libertyville,” a Chicago suburb. B-2 — Al Gore was born in Washington, DC — his father was a […]

The Map: 11 Angles on the Electoral College

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Earlier this week, we debuted our initial Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings in Politico Magazine. We’ve reprinted that column below for those who did not see it. As promised, we have elaborated on the map and our reasoning for the initial judgments. Map 1: Initial Crystal Ball 2016 Electoral College ratings 1. Our hardest calls […]

The 2016 Results We Can Already Predict

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, the Crystal Ball team takes an initial look at the Electoral College, and how most states have remained relatively predictable in their partisan leanings. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on May 3, […]