Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2015

Republicans in 2016: Rubio Edges Ahead of Walker

But this field remains remarkably large and jumbled

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For Republicans looking ahead to 2016, Florida is the pivotal state in the Electoral College. Naturally, we can’t know exactly what will happen a year and a half from now, but from our current vantage point, it appears very likely that the GOP must win the state to have a shot at winning 270 or […]

2016 Republican Race Might See Record Level of Competition in Early States

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With a list of 20 official or possible Republican entrants in the presidential race, it’s very possible that we will see a record number of major candidates in 2016. We’re clearly a long way from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, but a look back the last 40 years shows the potential for […]

Explaining the Republican “Lock” on the House

Strong partisanship, not gerrymandering, tells much of the story

, Emory University

The results of recent national elections in the United States have followed a clear pattern: Democrats have dominated presidential elections while Republicans have dominated congressional and especially House elections. Since 1992, Democratic candidates have won four of six presidential elections and the popular vote for president five times out of six. At the same time, […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

West Virginia governor: Manchin’s choice makes Republicans a narrow favorite After months of hinting that he might prefer to return home to run for a third term as governor, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decided to stay put in the Senate. That creates an open seat in the Mountain State — Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) […]

Clinton’s Age: It Probably Doesn’t Matter

History does not show an edge for the younger presidential candidate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

When Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced his presidential run on April 13, his speech made a point of going after ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) — and, in unspoken terms, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) — as the candidates of “yesterday.” There’s a clear generational gap between Rubio and Clinton and Bush: While he’s […]

Clinton’s Short List of Rivals

With Hillary in, Warren and others drop off our Democratic nomination rankings

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In light of Hillary Clinton’s presidential announcement on Sunday followed by Marco Rubio’s announcement on Monday, we decided to release the Crystal Ball early this week in order to break down their candidacies in a timely fashion. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday morning schedule next week. — The Editors The least shocking announcement […]

Marco Rubio’s Intriguing Presidential Bid

He’s a potentially strong contender for the GOP nod

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Early on Monday, news broke that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will run for president, ending any uncertainty about his future and whether he would remain in the Senate. He was scheduled to officially announce his candidacy late Monday afternoon. As he enters the race, Rubio sits in third behind ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Gov. […]

2016 Republican Nomination: The Race “Officially” Begins

Pence is sent packing as Paul announces

Last week, a Crystal Ball reader sent us an e-mail asking if now would be the time to remove “low name ID nationally” from our list of negatives for possible presidential aspirant Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN). We absolutely agree, given the turmoil surrounding Indiana’s new religious freedom law: There’s little question that name identification is […]

The Republican Presidential Primary Timeline

What we know so far about the GOP nominating process

, Guest Columnist

Before the 2016 presidential election cycle fully enters what might be called delegate selection plan season — when state parties finalize their plans for allocating delegates to the national conventions next year — it is important to take a step back and examine the rules changes made at the national party level. Those sets of […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Nevada Senate after Reid’s retirement, plus two gubernatorial ratings changes and some House updates

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) last week gives Republicans something they have been lacking in the early stages of this Senate cycle: a 50-50 shot at picking up a seat currently held by a Democrat. True, Reid’s poor approval numbers meant he was going to be a target of Republicans anyway. […]

Are Voters Drifting Away?

For first time in 16 years, back-to-back cycles saw drops in raw turnout

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For the first decade after Sept. 11, national elections showed a steady rise in voter turnout. The number of ballots cast in presidential elections jumped from 105 million in 2000 to a record 131 million in 2008, an increase of 25% in just eight years. Similarly, the midterm congressional turnout swelled from 66 million in […]