Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2015

Why This Scandal Won’t Hurt Hillary

History shows us that presidential candidates tend to weather controversy better than senators and congressmen

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he explores how scandals haven’t often been top-tier issues in presidential general elections, something to keep in mind in light of the recent focus on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico […]

The Political and Demographic Challenges of the 2016 Presidential Election

, Guest Columnist

It is quite interesting to speculate about the 2016 presidential nomination battles and especially potential general election winners and losers. But, it might be best for all of us to keep our powder dry. Current conventional wisdom has it that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and any of a gaggle of contenders will […]

Maneuvers in 2016 Senate Races Necessitate One Ratings Change…in the House

Florida and Indiana Senate contests get shaken up

Early this week, developments in Florida and Indiana caused a stir. First, news broke early Monday morning that Rep. Patrick Murphy (D, FL-18) will run for the Sunshine State’s Senate seat currently held by Sen. Marco Rubio (R), who is exploring a presidential run. Then, on Tuesday, Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) announced that he would […]

Now Available: the Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win […]

2016 President Update: Clinton Isn’t Going Anywhere…Yet

On the Republican side, Christie’s moving in the wrong direction

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Hillary Clinton went before cameras and reporters at the United Nations last week to address the ongoing controversy over her use of a private email system during her time as secretary of state. She was terse, combative, and essentially told the American people to “trust her” when she says that she didn’t do anything wrong […]

Ohio Senate: The Last Ride of the Appalachian Democrat

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

(COLUMBUS, Ohio) — The combination of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (president) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (Senate) as a Democratic “ticket” atop the ballot here next year would be a throwback. That’s not intended as a catty reminder that both Clinton (69 on Election Day 2016) and Strickland (75 on that same date) […]

Book Excerpt From the Surge: Through a Glass Darkly

The outlook for the 2016 presidential election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It’s spring break at the University of Virginia, and we want to supplement your beach reading — or replace a trashy novel — with sophisticated fare that will impress your friends. So this week we present an excerpt of Alan Abramowitz’s concluding chapter in The Surge, the U.Va. Center for Politics’ new book about the […]

Coattails and Correlation

Presidential and Senate results should track closely in 2016 -- and that’s nothing new

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Few political observers will be surprised that the correlation between presidential and Senate results has been increasing over the last few presidential election cycles. That is, during a presidential election year, the Senate race in state A has increasingly tended to have a similar outcome to the presidential result in state A. Other analysts have […]

Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the 2016 Senate playing field and Democrats’ chances of retaking the chamber. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on March 2, 2015. — The Editors It’s still too early to predict […]

Maryland Senate: Democrats Retain a Clear Edge

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) has created a second open seat among the 10 the Democrats are defending this cycle. The other open seat is in California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is retiring. While Boxer (74) and Mikulski (78) are retirement-aged, that they decided to leave now is perhaps a testament to the […]