Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2015

For Republicans, a 2016 Tie Is a Win

GOP virtually guaranteed to hold edge in event of deadlocked Electoral College

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, elected to a third term earlier this month, often notes that the presidential cycle is harder for his party than midterms because the electorate is more diverse and Democratic. “For us to win a presidential election, we have to be just about perfect, and the Democrats have to be […]

Updated 2020 Reapportionment Projections

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

At the end of 2014, the Census Bureau released its 2014 population estimates. This provides new fodder for political geeks when looking ahead to the 2020 census and its major political impact: congressional reapportionment. Unfortunately, the Census Bureau doesn’t release state-level population projections anymore, just national estimates up to the year 2060, leaving it to […]

Obama’s Approval Rating and the Outlook for the 2016 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the 2014 midterm election in the rearview mirror, the attention of pundits and political prognosticators has quickly shifted to the outlook for the 2016 presidential election. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State, First Lady, and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton appears to be the prohibitive favorite to emerge as the nominee. On the […]

The Search for a Slogan

What Hillary, Jeb, Rand, and the rest could learn from the history of campaign catchphrases

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he discusses the history of campaign slogans and what past examples could teach 2016 contenders. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Jan. 19, 2015. After the column appeared Monday, we solicited slogan suggestions via e-mail […]

Harry Reid & The Senate Survivors

By some measures, Reid is the steeliest of them all

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If history is any indication, it would be hard to pick against Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) if he runs for another term next year. His races are often close, but he has shown a remarkable amount of resilience over the years, frustrating Republican attempts to dislodge him. In fact, by some measures Reid […]

Three-Peat? Mitt Romney’s New Rating

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Shades of 2012! The previous Republican ticket just reappeared from the mists of the past to issue pronouncements about 2016. The ex-VP nominee, Rep. Paul Ryan, said the expected: He isn’t running. The Crystal Ball was so sure of his non-candidacy that we didn’t even include him anywhere in our seven tiers last month, to […]

The New World Order

The Republican White House field is scrambled earlier than expected

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Well, that didn’t last long! By that, we mean our pre-Christmas ordering of the GOP presidential field. We shouldn’t be surprised. Politics never takes a long holiday break anymore. First prize for early maneuvering goes to Jeb Bush. His unexpected, all-but-in announcement on Dec. 16 stunned his competitors and the political community. Bush didn’t just […]

Ny-11 Special: Republicans Well-Positioned to Hold One of Nation’s Most Distinctive Districts

But Democrats get a new target via retirement

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Could the indictment of former Rep. Michael Grimm (R, NY-11) have worked out any better for national Republicans? Probably not. That may seem like an odd observation to make, but follow along. Despite winning reelection in 2012, an ethical cloud was hanging over Grimm, to the point where Democratic and Republican operatives wondered if, and […]