Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2014

Only ~700 Days to Go

The Race for the White House -- Nomination Phase

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After releasing our initial Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings for 2016 earlier this month, we’re finishing off this year’s Crystal Ball with an updated look at the race for each party’s presidential nominations. We’ll be back Thursday, Jan. 8, 2015. Have a safe and happy holiday season. — The Editors Thank goodness the midterm election […]

Senate 2016: The Republicans’ 2012 Homework

GOP’s map daunting, but Democrats recently thrived despite starting in similar spot

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After playing offense in 2014 and netting nine Senate seats to set up a 54-46 majority in the 114th Congress, Republicans will mostly be playing defense in 2016. That probably means the GOP will end up losing seats, but recent history suggests that we should not be certain about that. Heading into the 2016 Senate […]

Governors 2016: Republicans to Make Further Gains?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Gubernatorial elections take something of a back seat during the presidential cycle. Over time, as most states moved to having four-year terms for their chief executives, most also opted to have their gubernatorial contests in non-presidential years. Just 11 states will choose governors in 2016, versus the 36 that did in 2014 (New Hampshire and […]

House 2016: Republicans Start With a Commanding Edge

Democrats could gain seats but probably not nearly enough

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

There is great symbolic importance to the lone U.S. House race where votes are being recounted. If Martha McSally (R) holds her narrow lead against Rep. Ron Barber (D, AZ-2), Republicans will have netted 13 House seats, giving them 247 in the 114th Congress and narrowly topping the 246 seats the Republicans held after the […]

What a Drag

Why a party may well be better off losing the White House

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the presidential party’s penalty for holding the White House: losing ground everywhere else. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Dec. 1, 2014. Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a […]

Louisiana Senate Runoff: Landrieu Appears Doomed

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A few months ago, Saturday, Dec. 6 loomed large on the political calendar. Might control of the Senate come down to a runoff in Louisiana between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)? Nope. With just a few days left to go in the campaign, the race is barely an afterthought: Republicans have […]