Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2014

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the […]

The Underrated Eisenhower Coalition

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Every political science undergraduate learns the “canonical” list of realigning elections: 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, and 1968. These elections, so the narrative goes, bring about sharp, enduring changes to the American political system, forcing one party into the background and allowing another party to come to the forefront. I’ve long been skeptical of the utility […]

What Goes Around Comes Around?

A little Electoral College history in Michigan

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Since President Obama’s reelection victory in 2012, a number of Republican state legislators around the country have proposed altering the electoral vote allocation processes in their respective states. Legislative activity on this front has been most common in competitive states that Obama won but where Republicans control most or all of state government, such as […]

Republicans Looking Good in Louisiana Runoff

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Congress may eventually approve the Keystone XL pipeline, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) won’t be able to witness it as a member of the U.S. Senate. The Crystal Ball is moving the rating in Landrieu’s runoff race against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. We announced […]

14 From ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer — 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive Senate races. This isn’t a […]

Comparing Wave and Calm Elections

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Is there something magical and mystical about the number five in elections? After the tsunami of 1994, there were five straight elections that were “calm elections” (1996-2004) and then five straight elections that could be considered wave elections. (A valid argument can be made that despite the size of the Obama win, Democratic gains in […]

Yup, It Was a Wave

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country. Notably, though, the argument for this election being a “wave” has more to […]

Crystal Ball 2014: So How’d We Do?

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Monday, we offered our final calls in all 507 of the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. As of this writing, 490 of those races have been called for one party or the other, and we got 476 correct (97%). We did best in the category everyone was watching most closely, the battle for the […]

2014 State Legislative Election Wrap

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After a day of double checking partisan composition numbers in the more than 6,000 legislative races this year, the extent of Republican success in this year’s legislative and governor’s elections is mostly clear. Suffice it to say, it was a banner election for the GOP. Republicans ran the proverbial table, taking the majority in 11 […]

The Crystal Ball’s Final 2014 Picks

Who we favor in all 507 of Tuesday’s Senate, gubernatorial, and House races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

If you’re in Charlottesville tonight, please join the Crystal Ball team — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley — for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms at 7 p.m. in Wilson Hall, Room 402 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information […]

State Legislative Elections Provide Down-Ballot Drama

, Guest Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While the nation’s attention is fixated on the congressional and gubernatorial races, it’s important to remember that the vast majority of states this year will also decide their state legislative contests. Walking us through the state legislative picture once again this cycle is Tim Storey, one of the country’s top experts on state-level politics. Storey […]