Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2014

House 2014: Generic Movement, Specific Standstill

Republican gains in national polls don’t necessarily mean large House seat addition

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story. Throughout the election cycle, we’ve been closely monitoring the House generic ballot, which is the national poll that asks whether voters would support a Republican or a Democrat in their local House […]

Senate Ratings Changes: North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Minnesota

Plus gubernatorial updates

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Another week is down the drain in the race for the Senate, and while our overall outlook is unchanged — a five to eight seat gain for the GOP — some of our ratings are in need of adjustments. One of these comes as a surprise, as Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is proving to be […]

Overtime: Five Reasons Senate Control Might Not Be Decided on Election Day

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Think the Senate will be decided on Election Day, Nov. 4? There are all sorts of reasons why you shouldn’t, unless in the next seven weeks one side or the other — probably the Republicans — starts opening up a clear lead in enough races to give them a clear majority. If neither side does, […]

Oops! They Weren’t Supposed to Win

November’s recent surprise winners, plus your suggestions

, The Crystal Ball Team

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week he took a look at races that featured upsets and surprising outcomes in Senate and gubernatorial contests since 2002. In the piece, he asked for readers to let us know if we missed any races worth mentioning, […]

What Is a Wave in the Senate?

Defining the undefinable as Republican chances inch upward

, U.Va. Center for Politics

For several months, we’ve held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we’re giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new range is a Republican net […]

Primary Particulars

Wrapping up the 2014 primary season with incumbent comparisons to 2010 and 2006

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After Tuesday’s contests in Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, primary season is essentially over. Only Louisiana remains, but it is in a class by itself with a unique “jungle primary” that takes place on what is general Election Day for every other state. Nothing is ever simple when compiling election stats, and we […]

2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top

GOP field features long list but no obvious frontrunner

, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s lonely at the top of the Republican field — like, “top of Mt. Everest” lonely. In our latest shuffle of the 2016 Crystal Ball presidential outlook, we’ve decided that the Republican first tier is…empty. Our Republican friends might object, but deep down, we think they would be hard-pressed to argue for any single name […]

Notes on the State of Politics

The GOP’s Jayhawk blues Washington Republicans were reaching for the Pepto-Bismol Wednesday night when the already intriguing Kansas Senate race took a dramatic turn: Chad Taylor, the Democratic candidate, is leaving the race. This gives independent businessman Greg Orman a clean shot at incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R). It’s been clear for much of the […]