Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2014

Off to the Races

Our pre-Labor Day midterm assessment, and a handful of Senate, House, and gubernatorial rating changes

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Earlier this week we offered a pre-Labor Day assessment of the midterm state of play in the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races coming up in November. The conclusion of that piece, written in Politico Magazine, is as follows: The overall picture is this: A Republican Senate gain of four-to-eight seats, with a GOP Senate pickup of […]

False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Republican Party has a major problem with young voters. According to national exit polls, the GOP has lost the under-30 vote by a wide margin in every election since 2004. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a whopping 23 percentage points among 18-29 year olds. Romney’s deficit among young voters was responsible […]

2014: More Than a Backlash From 2008

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The 2014 Senate elections are not shaping up to be particularly favorable for the Democrats. While there are still scenarios where they could walk away breaking even, or even gaining a seat or two, those scenarios are pretty far-fetched. Current predictions vary somewhat, but seem to center around Republicans picking up somewhere between five and […]

Iowa Survives

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

While potential presidential candidates are just beginning to jockey for pole position for 2016, there has already been one clear winner: the state of Iowa. Its precinct caucuses have retained the leadoff spot in the next nominating cycle in spite of one of the most embarrassing vote counts in modern political history two years ago […]

Abercrombie Makes History the Wrong Way

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Given the reports coming out of the Aloha State in the lead up to the contest, Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-HI) renomination loss this past Saturday may not have been that surprising. But Abercrombie’s defeat at the hands of little-known state Sen. David Ige (D) was shocking in terms of the margin. In fact, with 99% […]

House 2014: Handicapping The “Drive to 245”

How plausible is the GOP’s lower chamber goal?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A Republican at the end of 1928 could look back on the previous few decades and smile: His party was quite clearly the dominant force in American politics. Starting in 1896, Republicans had held the White House for 24 of 32 years, interrupted only by the GOP split that helped Democrat Woodrow Wilson get elected […]