Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2014

Republicans: “Thank God for Mississippi!”

Dissecting Thad Cochran’s comeback and other notes from Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editors’ Note: A version of the story below appeared in Politico Magazine on Wednesday morning as Thank God for Mississippi. The Crystal Ball is taking a break for July 4, so our next edition will be published in two weeks, on Thursday, July 10. — The Editors “Mississippi adds another variant to the politics of […]

Picking Your Primary Poison

As Herbert Hoover discovered, meddling in primaries can backfire

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Analysts are noticing the Democrats’ efforts to meddle in Republican primaries. In a Wall Street Journal article from last month, Janet Hook writes “Democrats increasingly are running ads against GOP candidates even before they win their party’s nomination. By attacking GOP candidates while they are still embroiled in a primary election campaign, some Democrats have […]

Notes on the State of Politics

House ratings changes, next week's primaries and Center for Politics wins an Emmy

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

House ratings changes A race-by-race analysis, as well as history, suggests Republicans are in line to make a small, mid-to-high single-digit addition to their majority, but there’s been little movement one way or the other in most races or in the overall climate. We’re planning to take a fuller look at the House picture next […]

Microscope on Magnolias

Runoff turnout drops, McDaniel as Reagan and other Mississippi tidbits

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

An old country phrase best describes the possibility of a turnout increase saving Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) in an upcoming runoff: That dog don’t hunt. But it’s also far from clear whether a bigger turnout would naturally help Cochran in the runoff anyway. Mississippi Republicans voted at record levels in the regular primary, and that […]

Cantor’s Fall

The House majority leader’s shocking loss is more an outlier than a harbinger

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Note: A version of this story appeared as “Your Theory About Why Cantor Lost Is Probably Wrong” on Politico Magazine Wednesday night. The Richmond Times-Dispatch called it a “political earthquake.” It was the “upset of the century,” added Fredericksburg’s Free Lance-Star. A powerful, veteran member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia had fallen […]

36 Elections That Really Matter This Year

Who will win more governors’ races in 2014?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. After taking a look at the Senate landscape a few weeks ago, this week he reviews the 36 gubernatorial contests up for grabs in 2014. One note: As part of this column, we have slightly altered our Crystal Ball […]

Rebutting Early Overanalysis of Potential Democratic Vice Presidential Field

, Guest Columnist

If history is a guide, the 2016 Democratic vice presidential candidate won’t be designated for almost 27 months. That reality didn’t prevent vice presidential speculation from breaking out in a big way in response to President Obama’s recent nomination of San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Some immediately […]

Mcdaniel’s ‘Friends and Neighbors’

The fallout from Tuesday’s primaries

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In his classic book Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key Jr. wrote about the importance of “friends and neighbors” in one-party southern elections. More than half a century after the book was written, strength at home powered yet another Deep South candidate. Tuesday night featured about as dramatic a race as we’ve seen […]