Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2014

Big and Little Nothings

Reviewing this cycle's mostly minor but occasionally major mistakes so far

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Yes, we know reporters have to react to news and find ways to make it relevant, but pardon us if we didn’t gag a little bit seeing headlines about the potential impact of Chelsea Clinton’s pregnancy on her mother’s potential presidential campaign. Some said the baby was timed for the campaign — because everyone knows […]

How Veterans Vote

Not that differently from the rest of the electorate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In Arkansas’ Senate contest, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) has a new ad that goes after Sen. Mark Pryor (D) for his comment that Cotton feels a “sense of entitlement” because of his military service. Cotton humorously utilizes his Army drill sergeant to talk about how his time in the military taught him “accountability, humility and […]

Exiting the House

The many paths to ending a career in Congress' lower chamber

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Over the past 40 years, there have been many ways to leave the U.S. House of Representatives. Specifically, nine different methods. The main ones, beyond losing a primary or general election, are to retire or run for another office. But a member can also do one of the following: be appointed to another office, resign, […]

The House Retirements That (Might) Matter in November

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The retirement of Rep. Tom Petri (R, WI-6) means that 41 members of the House are leaving the lower chamber at the end of this Congress in order to either exit public life or run for another office. There are clear governing implications for these retirements: For instance, several of the retiring members, like Reps. […]

Eleven Days to November

The key primaries leading to the 2014 midterms.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week he provides an overview of the key primary election dates that will preface the November midterm elections. — The Editors For political junkies desperate for clues to the hottest House, Senate and governors’ races around the country, […]

Is the Republican Presidential Vote Inefficiently Distributed?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

A number of months ago, I engaged in a spirited debate with Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira over whether there were “missing white voters” in the 2012 election upon which Republicans could potentially draw in the future to win elections. We also sparred over whether white voters were trending Republican, potentially offsetting Democratic gains among […]

Ratings Changes: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and West Virginia

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Two statewide southerners are seeing their fortunes move in opposite directions, while the weight of both a party label and a barrage of negative advertising look increasingly likely to sink one of the longest-serving members of the House. Here are this week’s Crystal Ball ratings changes in four gubernatorial, Senate and House contests. Table 1: […]

Midterm 2014: Where Things Stand Now

Presenting the Crystal Ball’s 2014 range of outcomes in Senate, House and gubernatorial races

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far. On the one hand, more than half of the states — 29 of 50 — have passed their filing deadlines for major party candidates (the deadline in a 30th, Tennessee, is today). The late entries of Rep. Cory Gardner […]

Ratings Changes: Hawaii, Maryland and Michigan

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

In addition to our new Crystal Ball Outlook for the House, Senate and gubernatorial races, we have a few tweaks to make to our ratings this week. To get our ratings changes as they happen, follow the Crystal Ball team on Twitter — @LarrySabato, @kkondik and @geoffreyvs — and check our website’s Ratings Changes page. […]

Dynasty Isn’t Just for Monarchies Anymore

A Bush-Clinton matchup in 2016 would hardly be unusual. American politics is more of a family affair than you think.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. With all the talk about the possible presidential candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, this week’s piece highlights the fact that politics has often been a family business in the United States. — The Editors Hillary Clinton and […]