Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2014

Generic Ballot Model Shows Senate Control at Tipping Point

Look for more partisan conflict and polarization in new Senate

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz’s discussion of his Senate elections model not only confirms how close we expect the 2014 Senate campaign will be, but it’s also quite timely, as the Republicans yesterday expanded their list of credible Senate targets. Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4), after previously declining to challenge Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO), […]

Deep-Sixing California

How a proposal to partition California into six states would impact the political landscape

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

California is such a massive state — if it were an independent nation, it would have the eighth-largest economy in the world — that it has long been the subject of partitioning proposals. Now a new plan is calling for the Golden State to be dismembered into six new states. The proposal could possibly go […]

Governors 2014: Where Politics Really Is Local

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The 1974 midterm elections represented a perfect storm for Democrats. Not only had President Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace just a few months before November, but Nixon’s successor — Gerald Ford — compounded Republican political problems by pardoning his old boss. The economy was also poor in 1974: Gross domestic product growth was a weak […]

Will a Governor Win the White House in 2016?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the field of governors who are potential presidential candidates and how governors have fared in past runs for the White House. — The Editors If you live under a governor, you mainly care […]

2014 House Forecast Update: No Wave in Sight

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are likely to result in minimal change in the party balance of power. The forecasting model uses three predictors — the current party balance of power in the House, the results of the last presidential election […]

Toward a Perfectly Partisan House

A lower chamber with zero crossover isn’t imminent, but 2014 could bring us a little closer

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

After the 2012 elections, there were only 26 members of the U.S. House who were elected from districts that their party’s presidential candidate didn’t win in the 2012 election. Nine Democrats were elected from districts Mitt Romney won, and 17 Republicans were elected from districts President Obama won. As we’ve previously mentioned, this is the […]

Further Discussion of 2020 Reapportionment

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Theodore Arrington wrote a short response/supplement to my earlier piece on the Voting Rights Act. I wrote this response mostly because I think he and I actually agree on most of the matters he discusses, suggesting that I was unclear at crucial points. Dr. Arrington discusses my analysis with respect to all three prongs of […]

2016 Presidential Ratings Update: Nothing but Questions on the Republican Side

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“It is not only the loneliest job in the world — it is one of continual soulsearching and of deep and sustained thought. A president is in the grip of events that never seem to let go. He is in every sense the captor of the most exacting office in the gift of a free […]

The Six Most Overrated Races of 2014

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

As previously announced, U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. With Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, this week’s column highlights six races getting a lot of media limelight right now that probably shouldn’t by November, particularly the Kentucky Senate and Texas gubernatorial […]

Reanalyzing 2020 Reapportionment

, Guest Columnist

Sean Trende’s analysis in “The 2020 Reapportionment and The Voting Rights Act” is helpful, but I would like to supplement his analysis or present a slightly different take. His overall conclusion that it is becoming more difficult to maintain voting rights districts is accurate, although the problem is with the U.S. Supreme Court’s interpretation of […]