Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2014

The 2020 Reapportionment and the Voting Rights Act

, Senior Columnist

We’re pleased to announce that Sean Trende, the shrewd senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, will be contributing regularly to the Crystal Ball. His first piece looks at the future of majority-minority House districts in northern states, and how in some instances it will be difficult to maintain these districts as some of these states lose […]

Long Odds for Most Senate Primary Challenges

History shows once again that it’s hard to beat an incumbent

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Last week, the Crystal Ball updated some 2014 general election ratings in the Senate. The takeaway: Control of Congress’ upper chamber very much hangs in the balance. As a follow-up, this week we’re taking a look at some important Senate primaries in states that are likely to have uncompetitive general elections. In heavily Democratic and […]

Senate 2014: A Coin-Flip

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Political news in the opening weeks of 2014’s midterm year has been dominated not by the upcoming national election, but instead by the one coming after it, in 2016. The year’s biggest political story is Gov. Chris Christie’s (R-NJ) bridge controversy, which is a story about the next presidential campaign and how much damage it […]

Hillary’s No Slam Dunk in 2016

Why she’s more vulnerable than everyone thinks

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we announced two weeks ago, U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine, which we will be linking to in the Crystal Ball. His second column questions the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton may encounter little opposition en route to the 2016 Democratic […]

A “Special” Favorite Emerges

Plus other Crystal Ball ratings changes in House and gubernatorial races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The matchup is now set in the closely-watched special election for a Tampa-area congressional district: David Jolly, a former lobbyist and aide to the late Rep. Bill Young (R, FL-13), comfortably won the GOP primary on Tuesday over two others. He will face Alex Sink (D), the state’s former chief financial officer and 2010 Democratic […]

Does Obama Have an Approval Floor?

Comparing the heart of his coalition with the heart of George W. Bush's suggests that he probably doesn't

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Dec. 3, 2013, President Obama hit his low point in approval as president, at least according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregate average of approval polling. That day, Obama fell below 40% for the first time in RCP’s measure, sinking to 39.8%, though he has since rebounded slightly to 42.1%. Two days after Obama dropped under 40%, […]

Virginia’s Brewing 2014 Senate Race Flips 2013’s Script

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The hack versus the partisan — sound familiar? An interesting wrinkle of former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie’s likely challenge to Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is that the forthcoming campaign, so long as it materializes, would in some ways simply reverse the arguments from last year’s Virginia gubernatorial race. In that contest, won by […]

The Future Shape of the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released new population projections for all 50 states. The results are not particularly surprising: American population growth is faster in the South and West, as it has been for decades.  In the U.S. House and the Electoral College, this growth makes the reallocation of seats every 10 years a zero-sum […]

Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We are pleased to announce that U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine, which we will be linking to in the Crystal Ball. His inaugural column analyzes what factors will matter in the 2014 midterm and where the race for the House and […]