Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2013

14 For ‘14: Some Bold Predictions for the New Year

, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

As we wrap up our publishing schedule for 2013, we looked into the Crystal Ball to offer some predictions for next year. While the picture is still a little hazy for the 2014 midterms, we’ve got some other prognostications related to the political year to come and some hints about what you should expect. 1. […]

Chris Christie’s Midterm Marker

, Senior Columnist, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Probably no election this year has been more important to the presidential politics of 2016 than Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s landslide 60% reelection victory in Democratic-leaning New Jersey. It cemented his place in the front ranks of Republican presidential contenders by demonstrating his vote-getting appeal to constituencies that the GOP covets. A few past presidents […]

Getaway Day in the House

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Prior to Tuesday, only six members of the House were retiring from the House. That does not include members who are running for other offices or who have resigned — rather, it’s just members who are really walking away from politics at the end of this Congress. Among those six, none were Democrats. Going back […]

A December Freeze?

In race for Congress, it’s wait and see

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With Christmas and New Year’s less than two weeks away, the political doldrums might finally be upon us. Tuesday saw President Obama attend the funeral for legendary South African President Nelson Mandela, producing stories about him shaking hands with Cuban dictator Raul Castro and the look on Michelle Obama’s face as her husband took a […]

Could the Budget Deal Fail?

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

On Tuesday, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) announced a two-year budget agreement that could potentially offer a respite from the fiscal fights of the past few years. But many conservative House Republicans are already balking at the deal because it breaks the spending caps called for under the sequester. Some […]

Center for Politics to Host 15th Annual American Democracy Conference

On Friday, Dec. 6, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 15th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the 2013 Virginia election outcome, the upcoming 2014 […]

The 2014 Senate Field Doesn’t Have to Be Set Yet

Late filing deadlines give Republicans a chance to find better candidates in places where they’re lacking

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The last month has been, on the surface, great for the Republican Party’s electoral fortunes in 2014. President Obama’s signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act, has been a mess, and it remains persistently unpopular in polling. Obama’s approval rating has been on a steady decline for months, and the recent events have driven it increasingly […]

The Threatening Thirties

Obama’s approval rating slide and what happened to his predecessors

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

For the first time in his presidency, Barack Obama finds his aggregate approval rating hovering right at 40%. In some polls, he has already fallen below it: According to Gallup, the president’s approval dropped to 39% three times in November. Currently, RealClearPolitics’ aggregation of approval polls finds the president’s approval right at 40.1% while HuffPost […]