Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2013

Kennedy & Me

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

John F. Kennedy speaks at Granby High School in Norfolk, VA, on Nov. 4, 1960. Credit: Associated Press. Choosing the topic of this article was easy for me, because it’s a personal story. No, it’s not your usual “Kennedy and me” tale. I never even shook hands with John F. Kennedy. But his presidential saga, […]

Center for Politics’ New App Provides Dramatic, Living History of Kennedy Assassination

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The JFK Half Century App, produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, is now available for download on Android and Apple devices. The app features the complete Dallas police recordings from Nov. 22, 1963, which the Center acquired from the National Archives and is available to the public in one easily accessible place […]

What a Successful Midterm Looks Like

Setting expectations for both Republicans & Democrats in 2014

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

“Oft expectation fails, and most oft there where most it promises.” — William Shakespeare, All’s Well That Ends Well When the Bard of Avon wrote those words some four centuries ago, he wasn’t describing Republican Senate candidates in 2010 or 2012, although the quote works well to illustrate how great opportunities can be frittered away. […]

Not Their Cup of Tea: The Republican Establishment Versus the Tea Party

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

With the 2013 government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis now behind us, one conclusion seems inescapable — this was a disaster for the Republican Party. While both major parties received negative reviews from the American public for their performance in the crisis, it was the GOP that took by far the bigger hit to its […]

Notes on the State of Politics

2012 vs. 2013 Virginia vote shares quite close In early October, the Crystal Ball discussed the election-to-election relationship of the percentage of the total statewide vote each Virginia locality casts. While the correlation between 2009 and 2012 vote shares was almost perfect (R ­= .996), there was noticeably large voter drop-off in a few cities […]

The Surprisingly Dramatic Terry & Ken Show

Plus: The nuclear option Cuccinelli considered using against Bob McDonnell & other tidbits from Election Night 2013

A year ago, almost everyone who followed Virginia politics thought that Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) had the inside track to winning the governorship. After all, it was in the 1880s when Virginia last gave a party just four consecutive years in the Governor’s Mansion. And Cuccinelli held one of the two positions that have […]