Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2013

How 2014’s Gubernatorial Races Affect the Next House Map

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives may not be at stake in 2014, if our recent analysis is correct, but control of the House in 2022 could be. What’s that you say? It’s simple electoral math. Many of the governors being elected or reelected in 2014 may still be in office after the next […]

Why Campaign “Game-Changers” Rarely Change the Game

, Guest Columnists

We’re pleased to feature a column by political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck about their excellent new book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election. We heartily recommend it to anyone who wants to understand what did (and didn’t) matter in 2012 and what factors are worth noting as we look […]

House update: Running to stand still

A battlefield defined by stalemate waits for a big nudge

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We are making many changes to the Crystal Ball’s U.S. House ratings, but the overall picture in the People’s House remains quite clear: Neither Republicans nor Democrats are positioned to make major gains in the House next year. Republicans are slightly likelier to net a tiny gain than Democrats are. Ergo, the Republican majority in […]

Tennant moves the needle in West Virginia

Republicans still favored in Mountain State, but Democrats not going quietly

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

West Virginia and national Democrats finally have a candidate in the Mountain State’s open Senate race: Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) will reportedly enter the contest Tuesday morning. Her entry, which has been rumored for months, gives Democrats a credible opponent for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R, WV-2), the likely Republican nominee. We are […]


Gender gap present in almost all federal statewide races over last decade

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

News reports that deem a gender gap in polling noteworthy — with women as more Democratic and men as more Republican — are falling into a trap described by a journalistic cliché: They’re reporting when a dog bites a man. That’s because it would be far more unusual — akin to a man biting a […]


What off-off year elections tell us about the future

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We can all guess the final result in New Jersey this November, and at this point most observers are less certain about Virginia’s, although we currently rate Terry McAuliffe (D) as a small favorite over Ken Cuccinelli (R) (if you missed our special Crystal Ball on Virginia from last Friday, you can read it here). […]


, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sarvis just the latest Virginia long shot This November, there will be only one statewide candidate out of seven in Virginia who doesn’t have “Republican” or “Democrat” next to his name. That individual is Robert Sarvis, who is running as a Libertarian for governor. (The other contests, for lieutenant governor and attorney general, feature only […]