Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for July, 2013

Senate 2014 and Beyond

Filibusters as far as the eye can see

, Political Analyst

After Senate Democrats cut a deal with Republicans to allow confirmation votes on a handful of President Obama’s appointees, it appears likely that the Senate is returning to “filibuster city,” as Burgess Everett of Politico referred to it in an article earlier this week. “There’s already a queue forming of new Obama nominees, and Republicans […]

Take Two

Readers react to our campaign advertising piece with suggestions of their own

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Last week, we highlighted 10 classic or notable political ads that we thought 2014 candidates might consider studying (or “borrowing,” to use a euphemism for copying) for their upcoming campaigns. We then asked readers to respond with their own ideas. Five of the best suggestions follow, along with some words of wisdom from a seasoned […]

“Missing Voters” in the 2012 Election:

Not so white, not so Republican

, Guest Columnists

This article about the future of the American electorate is a response by Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz and political demographics expert Ruy Teixeira to an article published here last week by Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics. A previous Abramowitz/Teixeira piece on this topic is available here. — The Editors Do “missing white voters” offer […]

Rinse and Repeat

10 classic political ads that 2014 candidates should (or shouldn’t) copy

, U.Va. Center for Politics

In American politics, everything old can be made new again, including the themes and attacks in candidates’ campaign ads. Some of the most notable presidential ads of the past few cycles were basically just copies of old ads. For instance, Hillary Clinton’s most famous ad in her 2008 Democratic primary campaign against Barack Obama featured […]

The Democrats’ Problem With White Voters

, Guest Columnist

Last week, Alan Abramowitz, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist, and Ruy Teixeira, an expert on American political demographics, wrote about the difficulties they foresee for Republicans in future presidential elections if they do not improve their performance with minority voters. That piece addressed a series of articles that analyst Sean Trende wrote for RealClearPolitics.com. Trende wished […]

A Republican Senate? It’s Much Easier to Imagine Now

, Political Analyst

Republicans have not won the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Max Baucus (D) since the advent of popular Senate elections. That they are now in position to do so speaks volumes about the importance of ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s (D) surprising decision to pass on the race. Schweitzer opting against a run is arguably the […]

Is Doubling Down on White Voters a Viable Strategy for the Republican Party?

, Guest Columnists

Perhaps the key question in American presidential politics is how the growing and overwhelmingly Democratic nonwhite vote will affect future elections. If Republicans can’t capture a bigger share of that vote, are they doomed to minority status in presidential elections? Or can Republicans find other paths to victory? In a series of articles for RealClearPolitics.com, […]