Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2013

Senate 2014: One Direction, but How Far?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

This concludes our four-part update of the 2014 electoral environment. First, we proposed that 2014 might end up being a little like 1986; next, we described the narrow battlefield in the House and why Republicans might have a better chance to make gains than Democrats; then, we noted that a high level of gubernatorial incumbency […]

Governors 2014: The Incumbent Avalanche

, U.Va. Center for Politics

If you’re looking for a major difference between the last midterm election in 2010 and the one coming up in 2014, we’ve got one for you: gubernatorial incumbency — the lack of it in ’10 and the abundance of it in ’14. Back in ’10, just a baker’s dozen of the 37 incumbent state governors […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Massa-snooze-etts: A steady special election comes to a close The Massachusetts special Senate election is next Tuesday, and despite a lot of noise to the contrary, the race is not particularly close, nor has it been at any point of the contest. Rep. Ed Markey (D) has been and is a fairly strong favorite to […]

House Update: Tiny Movement Toward Republicans

, House Editor

At this very early point in the 2014 race for the U.S. House, small Republican gains — as in, less than five seats — look likelier than a similarly small gain for Democrats. That’s because the Republican targets just look a little better than the Democratic ones. While it would be foolish to rule out […]

Course Corrections: A Midterm Theory

What 1986 tells us about 2014’s Senate and gubernatorial races

, Political Analyst

Over the next several weeks, we’ll run full updates on 2014’s House, Senate and gubernatorial races. But as an introduction we wanted to offer a little history about the ebb and flow of American politics from Ronald Reagan’s last midterm in 1986, a seemingly odd election that saw Democrats make big gains in the Senate […]

How Should We Vote?

Considering alternate ways to cast a ballot

, Guest Columnist

In an earlier thought experiment for this site, I examined the history of multiple-member and statewide at-large districts in congressional elections, and wondered whether a movement away from the near-universal use of single-member districts (SMDs) in American legislative elections might be advisable and politically feasible. Electoral systems that feature SMDs with plurality rule — like […]