Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2013

Yearning for the Golden Age of Crisis Coverage…That Never Existed

Think the media blew their reporting on Boston’s bombing? JFK assassination coverage was worse.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There were real victims in the Boston bombings last week — the dead, the wounded, the grieving families, the terrorized communities — but there was substantial collateral damage done to news media credibility. We’ll leave to others the listing of specific winners and losers. Goodness knows, there have been enough scathing reviews published already. Innocent […]

Senate Update: Baucus Leaving Could Be Blessing in Plain Sight

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

So maybe Brian Schweitzer really is senile enough for the U.S. Senate. After the retirement of Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) earlier this week, the former Democratic governor is certainly at the top of the Democrats’ wish list to run for the now-open seat. Schweitzer, who was very popular during his recently concluded two-term governorship, has […]

Demographics Overtakes Economy as Prime Presidential Election Indicator

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

One of the questions we asked prior to the 2012 election was whether or not state-level unemployment figures would matter much on Election Day. As it turned out, the answer was “probably not much.” Throughout the 2012 election cycle, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report became a highly anticipated event. Politicians, journalists and […]

16 for ’16, Part 2: An Elephant Rises From the Heartland?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we discussed last week, the Democratic Party’s presidential field in 2016 hinges greatly on the decision of one person: Hillary Clinton. The Republican Party’s early primary picture is much more complicated, and the top-tier contenders are grouped much closer together at the starting gate. To us, though, there is one name that stands out […]

16 For ’16, Part 1: Democrats Again Hunger for History

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Before he cast his ballot in 1860, Abraham Lincoln cut off the portion of it pertaining to the presidential race. Lincoln did not campaign for office, nor did he even vote for himself. Back then and for much of the nation’s history, it was considered unseemly to seek the presidency openly, obviously and energetically. It […]

Hard Targets?

Just 25 House members hold districts that the other party's presidential candidate won, and not all are vulnerable

, House Editor

One needs little more than just fingers and toes to count the number of House members who represent districts won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2012. As mentioned here previously, just 25 House members — nine Democrats and 16 Republicans — hold such “crossover” districts. Compare that to 2004, when there were 59 […]