Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2013

All Senators Are Equal, but Their Classes Aren’t

Why 2014's map is most favorable to the Republicans, and why it might not matter

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

Make no mistake — this year’s Senate elections are being waged on Republican turf. But that’s not uncommon. A third of all Senate seats are on the ballot every other November, which means that two-thirds of the Senate remains the same even after a federal election (special elections prompted by vacancies can create a bit […]

Red Alert, Part 2 – the Governors

, U.Va. Center for Politics

UPDATE: The Crystal Ball‘s Kyle Kondik spoke with Paul Brandus of West Wing Report about this article. To hear the audio, click here. A Star Trek fan quibbled (Tribbled?) with our piece last week, noting that the character James T. Kirk was actually an admiral, not a captain, during the movie Star Trek II: The […]

2014 Senate Ratings: Red Alert!

, U.Va. Center for Politics

We’ll grant you, most people now prefer to follow the candidates in a March 2013 election over in Rome, not the 2014 contests in the United States. But the Crystal Ball doesn’t analyze papabili and has all but endorsed Timothy Cardinal Dolan (our proffered populist yet saintly slogan for him: “He’s just like you, only […]

Midterm Forecast: Democrats May Gain House Seats in 2014 but Majority Probably Out of Reach

, Senior Columnist

The 2014 midterm elections are a long way off but one thing is already fairly clear: Democrats face an uphill battle in trying to win back control of the House of Representatives. Thanks in part to their control of redistricting in a large number of key states, Republicans easily managed to hold on to their […]

2014 House Ratings: Democratic Potential, Republican Predictability

, House Editor

If there are two adjectives that best describe the respective target lists of Democrats and Republicans in the House this cycle, it’s “potential” for the donkeys and “predictable” for the elephants. For Democrats, the House map offers a number of potentially enticing targets, many of whom are unaccustomed to serious challenges. Sifting through these possible […]