Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2012

Closing the Book on 2012

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Now that we have official election results from nearly every state, we wanted to offer some closing thoughts on election 2012. So here are 10 bite-sized nuggets, an appetizer for your holiday feasts. As a programming note, we’re taking the next two weeks off to recharge for the next cycle. Our next issue of the […]

House 2014: A Narrowing Battlefield?

, House Editor

Ticket-splitters are getting rarer and rarer, at least based on the dwindling number of congressional districts where different parties won the presidential vote and the House seat. And that potentially reduces the number of targets for both sides as we examine 2014’s House playing field. It appears that only about one of every 15 House […]

South Carolina Doubles Down on 2014

, Political Analyst

When Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) unexpectedly announced that he planned to resign his seat in early 2013 to become president of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, he set in motion an odd American political occurrence: the double-barreled Senate election. This is when there is both a Senate special election and a regularly-scheduled Senate […]

Statehouse Rock, 2014: Can Republicans Sustain Their Gains?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

One way or another, the fiscal cliff dilemma is going to produce a larger, wealthier federal government. Either going off the cliff pumps hundreds of billions in new tax revenues into the U.S. Treasury via the end of the Bush tax cuts, or avoiding the fiscal cliff pumps hundreds of billions in new tax revenues […]