Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2012

2014 Senate Preview: Can Republicans Finally Turn Potential Into Reality?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As the 2012 election fades into the history books, we begin our first look at the 2014 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Let’s start with the Senate, which will be the site of an intense battle for control once again. Before looking ahead at the Republicans’ prospects to gain the six seats they need […]

Post-Election Book Will Break Down 2012

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that its latest post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, is in final production, with a targeted release date of mid-January 2013. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato has brought together top journalists […]

12 From ’12: Some Takeaways From a Wild Election

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Programming note: The Crystal Ball is taking the week off for Thanksgiving next week, but we’ll be back with another edition on Thursday, Nov. 29. So what can we glean from last week’s election? Plenty. Here are 12 takeaways from the 2012 election, presented in bite-sized pieces. One note: all vote totals and percentages used […]

Crystal Ball Has Another Strong Cycle

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Despite a topsy-turvy, hurricane-interrupted election that looked closer a week ago than it actually was on Election Day, the Crystal Ball accurately projected Monday that President Barack Obama would comfortably win a second term in the White House. Our final projection had Obama winning 290 electoral votes. It now appears that he will do better […]

Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term

, U.Va. Center for Politics

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes. This […]

Impact of Multiple Recounts Could Go Beyond Borders

, Guest Columnists

Almost everyone fervently hopes that the presidential election result is decisive, whichever way it goes. Few who went through the “overtime” election of 2000 would ever wish that on America again. But wishing may not make it so. Two politically experienced attorneys, Steven Okun and Thurgood Marshall, Jr., give us a glimpse of what might […]

President Too Close to Call; Democrats Hold Senate Edge Prior to Final Weekend

Final predictions in Electoral College, other races, coming Monday

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Remarkably, after a year of intense campaigning, this election is not in the bag for either major-party candidate. It remains on the edge of the butter knife; the state polling averages tilt the Electoral College slightly to President Obama, and the RealClearPolitics national polling average moved into an exact tie late Wednesday afternoon. On top […]

Three’s a Crowd: Where Third-Party Candidates Might Have an Impact

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

American electoral history is mainly a story of two parties. But every now and then, a third party or independent candidate makes a significant imprint on an election. In recent years, the main impact of third-party candidacies has been to play the role of spoiler, hurting one major-party candidate more than another. For example, Ralph […]