January 31st, 2012
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The moon over Miami was a blue moon for Newt, a bad moon rising for Gingrich. This moon’s shine was all for Mitt Romney, illuminating a moon river that seems set to eventually carry Romney to the Republican presidential nomination.
But how fast is “eventually?” In this roller coaster race, no one should pretend to know [...]
January 31st, 2012
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Back in September, the Crystal Ball examined the possible electoral impact of state-by-state unemployment figures because, after all, presidents are elected in 51 individual battles (50 states plus Washington, D.C.)
With the January jobs report to be released this Friday, we thought we would once again examine the state-by-state numbers, which are shown in Chart 1. [...]
January 31st, 2012
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Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog.
Up and down and all around the 2012 Republican presidential campaign has gone. It has probably been the craziest nominating race in the last generation.
And from this vantage point, the weirdest event of all thus far was the changing outcome in Iowa – from an 8-vote [...]
January 26th, 2012
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What can we expect from the Florida primary? What are the possible repercussions of a Gingrich victory versus those of a Romney win in the Sunshine State? Check out our latest Crystal Ball video by clicking on the picture. Below, we examine the Republican electoral situation and what a Gingrich candidacy might mean:
In the aftermath [...]
January 26th, 2012
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Note: This article originally appeared in the Jan. 24 edition of The Wall Street Journal.
Do endorsements matter? Politicians certainly think so, and they spend loads of time courting party elites and opinion-makers. So far, though, 2012 has shown how the politics of anointment and appointment can fail.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley flopped mightily in trying [...]
January 21st, 2012
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This much is obvious: South Carolina has proven to be a disaster for Mitt Romney. The size of his defeat by Newt Gingrich — a 12%+ landslide in a four-way race — is virtually a repudiation of his candidacy in a state that has prided itself on picking the eventual nominee for 32 years. And [...]
January 19th, 2012
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We here at the Crystal Ball, and of course our readers, love politics. But Americans don’t, especially now: Congress is historically unpopular, and Americans are so sick of politics that more than two-thirds of them according to one survey wished the presidential campaign was over even before it officially started.
With that in mind, here’s a [...]
January 19th, 2012
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While Mitt Romney may very well be on his way to winning the GOP nomination, he is not completely out of the woods yet. With so many primaries and caucuses left to be decided, it is perfectly possible that other candidates will win some of the remaining states as long as they stay in the [...]
January 12th, 2012
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Is Mitt Romney unstoppable? Will South Carolina risk its perfect primary record to back someone else? And will Ron Paul go all the way to the convention? Get our take — and answers to your Twitter questions — in our latest Crystal Ball video. Analysis of New Hampshire and a look ahead to South Carolina [...]
January 12th, 2012
Modern Cabinets: No “Team of Rivals”
With Mitt Romney leading in the Republican nomination battle, there has been talk of what kind of roles the other GOP candidates might occupy in a hypothetical Romney administration. Naturally, the first position discussed is vice president, but there has also been talk of Cabinet appointments, and it is [...]
January 5th, 2012
What a night! Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses got the Republican primary season off to a rousing start, with Mitt Romney winning the narrowest of victories over Rick Santorum.
What do the Iowa results mean, and what should we expect in New Hampshire? Check out our first-ever Crystal Ball video to get our take. And with next [...]
January 5th, 2012
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CHICAGO — It was predictable that Illinois Republicans would be outraged by the state’s new congressional district map, which the Democrats who control the redistricting levers in Springfield inflicted on them this summer. They were so angry, in fact, that they sued in federal district court to try to get the new lines overturned.
Yet the [...]
January 3rd, 2012
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With tonight’s agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years:
1972
Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6.
1976
Dems: April 6, Wisconsin – Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska – Church 38.5, Carter 37.6; May 18, Michigan – Carter 43.4, Udall 43.1.
GOP: Jan [...]
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