Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2012

How Long Is Romney’s Road to the Nomination?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The moon over Miami was a blue moon for Newt, a bad moon rising for Gingrich. This moon’s shine was all for Mitt Romney, illuminating a moon river that seems set to eventually carry Romney to the Republican presidential nomination. But how fast is “eventually?” In this roller coaster race, no one should pretend to […]

Update: Unemployment and the Presidential Race

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

Back in September, the Crystal Ball examined the possible electoral impact of state-by-state unemployment figures because, after all, presidents are elected in 51 individual battles (50 states plus Washington, D.C.) With the January jobs report to be released this Friday, we thought we would once again examine the state-by-state numbers, which are shown in Chart […]

The Iowa Reversal

, Senior Columnist

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. Up and down and all around the 2012 Republican presidential campaign has gone. It has probably been the craziest nominating race in the last generation. And from this vantage point, the weirdest event of all thus far was the changing outcome in Iowa – from […]

The Republicans’ Electoral College Newt-Mare

, U.Va. Center for Politics

What can we expect from the Florida primary? What are the possible repercussions of a Gingrich victory versus those of a Romney win in the Sunshine State? Check out our latest Crystal Ball video by clicking on the picture. Below, we examine the Republican electoral situation and what a Gingrich candidacy might mean: In the […]

Do Endorsements Matter?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Note: This article originally appeared in the Jan. 24 edition of The Wall Street Journal. Do endorsements matter? Politicians certainly think so, and they spend loads of time courting party elites and opinion-makers. So far, though, 2012 has shown how the politics of anointment and appointment can fail. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley flopped mightily […]

Romney’s Coronation: Just Delayed, or Gone Awry?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

This much is obvious: South Carolina has proven to be a disaster for Mitt Romney. The size of his defeat by Newt Gingrich — a 12%+ landslide in a four-way race — is virtually a repudiation of his candidacy in a state that has prided itself on picking the eventual nominee for 32 years. And […]

Voter Disgust: What Might It Mean for the House Race?

, House Editor, U.Va. Center for Politics

We here at the Crystal Ball, and of course our readers, love politics. But Americans don’t, especially now: Congress is historically unpopular, and Americans are so sick of politics that more than two-thirds of them according to one survey wished the presidential campaign was over even before it officially started. With that in mind, here’s […]

Romney’s Opponents Look for the Spirit Of ‘76

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

While Mitt Romney may very well be on his way to winning the GOP nomination, he is not completely out of the woods yet. With so many primaries and caucuses left to be decided, it is perfectly possible that other candidates will win some of the remaining states as long as they stay in the […]

Ten Days to Stop Romney

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Is Mitt Romney unstoppable? Will South Carolina risk its perfect primary record to back someone else? And will Ron Paul go all the way to the convention? Get our take — and answers to your Twitter questions — in our latest Crystal Ball video. Analysis of New Hampshire and a look ahead to South Carolina […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Modern Cabinets: No “Team of Rivals” With Mitt Romney leading in the Republican nomination battle, there has been talk of what kind of roles the other GOP candidates might occupy in a hypothetical Romney administration. Naturally, the first position discussed is vice president, but there has also been talk of Cabinet appointments, and it is […]

On to New Hampshire

What a night! Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses got the Republican primary season off to a rousing start, with Mitt Romney winning the narrowest of victories over Rick Santorum. What do the Iowa results mean, and what should we expect in New Hampshire? Check out our first-ever Crystal Ball video to get our take. And with […]

Why the Courts Punt on Gerrymandering

, Guest Columnist

CHICAGO — It was predictable that Illinois Republicans would be outraged by the state’s new congressional district map, which the Democrats who control the redistricting levers in Springfield inflicted on them this summer. They were so angry, in fact, that they sued in federal district court to try to get the new lines overturned. Yet […]

Some Close Primary and Caucus Results From the Past

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

With tonight’s agonizingly close race in the Iowa caucuses, we decided to look back at other close primary calls through the years: 1972 Dems: May 2, Ohio – Humphrey 41.2, McGovern 39.6. 1976 Dems: April 6, Wisconsin – Carter 36.6, Udall 35.6; May 11, Nebraska – Church 38.5, Carter 37.6; May 18, Michigan – Carter […]