Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2011

Will Obama’s Foreign Policy Wins Lead to a Win Next Year?

, Guest Columnist

Presidents do not have a lot of leisure reading time, so it’s unlikely that Barack Obama has had time to flip through the pages of Harper’s November issue. And that’s probably good news for the president, because here are the first two entries of the famed “Harper’s Index” this month: Portion of Americans who think […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Perry the Pretender Oh how the mighty have… oops. Despite his best efforts to poke fun at his poor performance, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is feeling the consequences of his now infamous gaffe in last Wednesday’s debate.  A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that Perry’s now-meager support dropped from 8% to 4% in […]

Why Barack Obama Has a Good Chance of Winning a Second Term

And why Nate Silver may have underestimated his chances

, Senior Columnist

According to the Time-for-Change forecasting model, which has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1988, Barack Obama has a good chance of winning a second term in the White House next November. The main reason for this is that the Democratic Party has only held the White House […]

Obama’s Destiny: Does It Lie in Demographics, or in the Political Environment?

, Guest Columnist

Call it the clash of irresistible force of demography/geography versus the immovable object of the political environment. This is the conundrum facing political analysts in looking at President Obama’s chances in the presidential election next year. Some people are debating whether or not this is a referendum or a choice. Presidential reelection efforts are always […]

Veep Speculation Is Just That

, Guest Columnist

There really is no need to talk about vice-presidential selection right now, but in recent weeks discussion of the subject has filled pages, airwaves and cyberspace as a number of knowledgeable observers have approached the subject from imaginable (and unimaginable) angles. Pundits have declared Vice President Joe Biden dumped and have anointed any number of […]

Lessons From History: Don’t Be Too Quick to Pull Down the Curtain

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Over the decades, in every fourth year, we have noticed a tendency to close out the presidential nominating contest before the voting has even begun. There is a little of this impatience on display in 2011, too. It is only natural since the campaigns are nearly eternal. “Enough already!” many seem to be shouting. Here […]