Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2011

In Ohio, a Labor Showdown Looms

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

In the vengeful world of politics, what goes around often comes around. After the November midterm elections in Ohio in 1994, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, Harry Meshel, received a telephone message: A county commissioner had called asking for Meshel’s resignation in the wake of the calamitous election, in which Republicans won control […]

The Electoral College: Democrats’ Friend?

, Senior Columnist

It’s way too soon to make any firm prediction about the outcome of the 2012 presidential election. We don’t know what President Obama’s approval rating will be in the fall of 2012 or what condition the U.S. economy will be in a year from now. Economic conditions and ratings of the incumbent’s job performance 14 months before […]

In Iowa, It’s Up Close and Personal

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

As the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames was wrapping up Saturday, a reporter rushed onto the floor of Iowa State University’s Hilton Coliseum, where the press was filing their stories. She went up to her colleagues with what she said was a new, breaking quote from Michele Bachmann: Bachmann, the reporter said, had just vowed […]

The Dirty Thirties

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

President Obama has found himself in the cellar for the first time since taking office: He fell to 39% in Gallup Poll tracking over the past weekend. Obama may or may not have a month or months when his average is below 40%. Still, it is a number that has already imprinted itself on the […]

Contenders vs. Pretenders — And a New Face?

The Crystal Ball has updated its listing of the presidential candidates in the wake of the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames and Rick Perry’s entry into the race. Mitt Romney continues to lead the list, followed by Perry and Michele Bachmann. These are the “contenders” for the nomination, meaning that they are the only candidates […]

Pawlenty in Winter, Perry in Bloom

The Republican presidential race after Ames

, Political Analyst, University of Virginia Center for Politics

“I think we know with reasonable certainty that standing up there on the west front of the Capitol on Jan. 20, 2013 will be one of three people: Obama, [Tim] Pawlenty and [Mitch] Daniels. I think that’s it.” – George Will, May 15, 2011, on ABC’s “This Week” (AMES, Iowa) — Those of us in […]

It’s Not Just History Holding Back Republican Race’s Minnesotans

, Political Analyst, U.Va. Center for Politics

(AMES, Iowa) – In his fascinating new book of alternate histories, Then Everything Changed, noted political journalist Jeff Greenfield envisions a scenario – not to give too much away – in which Hubert Humphrey, the liberal Minnesotan, is thrust into the president’s chair to handle an international crisis. But, unfortunately for HHH, only an act […]

It’s Debatable

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Programming Note: The Crystal Ball‘s Kyle Kondik will be reporting from the Republican presidential debate and the Iowa Straw Poll over the next several days. Follow him on Twitter @kkondik and check the

From the House to the White House? Not So Fast

, Guest Columnist

Michele Bachmann is surging. Newt Gingrich is struggling. And, as usual, Ron Paul is stirring the pot. The 2012 Republican presidential primary field is crowded — specifically with current or former members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Indeed, Bachmann and Paul may very well be among the top performers at Saturday’s Iowa Straw Poll […]

“Safe” to Vote No: Analyzing the Debt Ceiling Vote

, U.Va. Center for Politics

What a week it has been! As the political world recovers from its deep exhaustion and wonders about the fallout from the debt ceiling deal, it’s worth taking a step back. First, let’s all remember that 15 months from now, when Americans go to the polls to vote for president and Congress, this summer storm—intense […]

Tweets of the Week: Debt Deal Done

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]