Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2011

Obama’s Ace: No Challenge From the Left (So Far)

, Senior Columnist

In his column in The Wall Street Journal June 23, Republican strategist Karl Rove explained all the reasons why he thought President Barack Obama would likely lose his reelection bid in 2012. Rove made a compelling case: a sour economy that he doubts will improve much before next November; a Democratic base showing signs of […]

Bachmann: Romney’s Best Friend?

, Political Analyst

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) had a lot to be happy about as she kicked off her presidential campaign earlier this week in her birthplace, Waterloo, IA: She performed well at the presidential debate held June 13 in New Hampshire, and over the weekend she finished a close second in the first Des Moines Register poll […]

Democrats Blue as Senate Acquires a Reddish Tinge

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we take a fresh look at next year’s Senate races, one thing is clear: Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It’s just a basic matter of numbers. Republicans need to pick up either three or four seats, depending on whether they have […]

The Comeback Kids: Senate Second Acts

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Bill Clinton is far from the only “comeback kid” in American politics. As we noted last week, many presidents have experienced election losses before they reached the promised land of the White House. A similar story can be told in the U.S. Senate, with 31* senators leaving the chamber only to return at a later […]

Loser’s Lane: The Road to the White House

, U. Va. Center for Politics

Presidents are the big winners in American politics, and so naturally we tend to think of them as blessed, preternaturally lucky and untouched by defeat. But it just isn’t so. We decided to take a look back to see just how many of the 43 men who have held the nation’s highest office had lost […]

Puerto Rico in 2012: A Stateside Story

, U. Va. Center for Politics

In the immediate aftermath of President Obama’s trip to Puerto Rico earlier this week, much ink has been spilled speculating about the political motivations and ramifications of the first official presidential visit to the island since 1961. Will the president choose a side on the issue of Puerto Rican statehood? Is he courting the Puerto […]

Tweets of the Week: Debate Recap

, Director, U. Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Gop 2012 Update: The Big Tease

, U. Va. Center for Politics

Rarely if ever has one of the two major parties been so confounded by dissatisfaction with its presidential field and the refusal by the base’s and establishment’s preferred choices to run. The void in the GOP ranks has led to a big tease: Potential contender after potential contender, many of them with no real hope […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U. Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Will Jewish Voters Abandon Obama in 2012?

, Senior Columnist

President Obama’s recent speech calling on the Israeli government to accept Israel’s 1967 borders as a starting point for negotiations toward a peace agreement with the Palestinians has led to widespread speculation that large numbers of Jewish voters may turn against Obama in 2012. Republican presidential candidates and congressional leaders have criticized the president’s speech […]

A Note on Mother Nature and Redistricting

, U. Va. Center for Politics

We all know that Louisiana is losing a U.S. House seat this year because of Mother Nature. The terrible destructive power of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused the population of New Orleans to decrease by about 140,000 people from the 2000 to 2010 census, which greatly contributed to the state’s congressional delegation falling from seven […]

A Puerto Rican Vice President?

, U. Va. Center for Politics

Beneath the surface of all the buzz surrounding the GOP nomination for president in 2012 lies speculation about everyone’s favorite “bucket of warm spit:” possible vice presidential running mates for the eventual candidate. Many have speculated that the veep nominee will be an opportunity for the Republicans to attract new voters from the ever-growing minority […]