WHERE ARE THE OBAMA SCANDALS?

One of the least remarked upon aspects of the Obama presidency has been the lack of scandals. Since Watergate, presidential and executive branch scandal has been an inescapable feature of the American presidency, but the current administration has not yet suffered a major scandal, which I define as a widespread...

Will Obama Need to Find His Inner “Wilson?”

Take a poll of political pundits about next year’s presidential election, and most at this point would probably predict that President Barack Obama would win reelection, but with a reduced margin from 2008 in both the popular and electoral vote. Yet if that actually happens, it would be an historical...

NY-26 Special Election: Mind the Debate, Forget the Decision

The nation got a preview of the Democrats’ sweeping congressional election victories in 2010 when Democratic candidates pulled off victories in three close special House elections. The results were just the first of many for Democrats in the last cycle, when… Err, wait a second, let’s start over here. Democrats...

The Race Factor: White Racial Attitudes and Opinions of Obama

In 2008, Barack Obama used massive majorities among African Americans and other nonwhites to overcome a large deficit among white voters and win the presidency. Thirty months later, opinions about his performance remain deeply divided along racial lines. Moreover, persistent questions about Obama’s place of birth and religion have raised...

The Geography of Power: A Political Map of Virginia

Every 10 years the quietly methodical Census leads to blood on the floor of most state legislatures, as members try to convert the population numbers into districts from which they and their fellow politicians in the U.S. House will run for reelection. If anything, there’s even more blood flowing than...

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato...

The president and the Democrats, post-bin Laden

Why the political payoff might come later rather than sooner

The death of Osama bin Laden, inflicted by crack U.S. Special Forces personnel acting on the orders of President Barack Obama, is undoubtedly a triumph for the embattled commander in chief. But will it provide him tangible political help when he stands for reelection a year and a half from...

REPUBLICAN SENATE MAJORITY ON THE WAY?

One model says yes

Here at the Crystal Ball we want to encourage the work of promising young political scientists. This week, we are featuring the work of Harry Enten, a student at Dartmouth College who has an interesting take on next year’s Senate elections. Perhaps Harry’s prediction is a bit too optimistic for...

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato...