Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2011

Congressional Redistricting: Is Creating “Safe” Districts a Dying Art?

, Senior Columnist

When it comes to congressional redistricting, the nation’s most populous state is in a class by itself. About a decade ago, the Democratic state legislature passed what would prove to be one of the most perfect “status quo” congressional district maps imaginable. It was designed to create a large cadre of safe seats for both […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Starting Line: Vice Presidential Speculation

, Guest Columnist

This time next year, the airwaves will be full of speculation about GOP vice presidential possibilities. (The Democratic ticket is already set, for all practical purposes, with Joe Biden getting the party slot again.) Without a Republican nominee, or even an absolutely clear frontrunner, it is pointless to come up with a list of likely […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Phantom Campaign

Shadow-Boxing for the Presidency

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Much has changed since our launch of the 2012 Crystal Ball Presidential Ratings—and yet little has changed in this slow-starting campaign. We outlined all our cautions about early assessments in the January Crystal Ball, so we’ll just skip right to the red meat evaluation. Assuming Republicans want to put forward a candidate who can fully […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Crystal Ball’s Senate Ratings: March Update

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s time for a quick update on the 2012 Senate and Governor contests. Even though only two months have passed since our January roll-out, a surprisingly large number of shifts have occurred. Partly because Senate Democrats pushed their potential retirees to announce early in the election cycle, we have witnessed a spate of farewells by […]

The Early Line—Second Take: 15 Governorships of 2011-12

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 15 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 4) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Grabbing Those Coattails

Which Senate Seats Might Turn on the Presidential Outcome in 2012?

, U.Va. Center for Politics

It is already obvious that control of the Senate will be up for grabs in 2012, with Republicans needing just 3 or 4 seats to take control (depending on whether the GOP wins the presidency and, along with it, the vice president’s tie-breaking vote). How much do Senate races in presidential years depend upon which […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]