Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2011

The Battle in Wisconsin: A Tone-Setter for 2012?

, Senior Columnist

Over the course of the last few months, MSNBC political commentator (and host of “Hardball”) Chris Matthews has popularized the idea that the 2012 presidential election will be decided in a swath of terrain “from Scranton to Oshkosh.” To Matthews, this is “the industrial center” of the nation, the part that “built” America, and “where […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Latino Threshold

Where the GOP needs Latino votes and why

, Guest Columnist

In the days immediately following the 2010 midterms several indisputable trends for the cycle were apparent. Voters were most concerned about the state of the economy, particularly unemployment, as well as the federal budget deficit. The Tea Party movement was the key, ground-level political force. And although the exact sums and sources were uncertain, tens […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Obama’s Advantage

First Term Incumbents Rarely Lose but a Close Election Likely

, Senior Columnist

The 2012 presidential election is still more than 20 months away. While the early maneuvering for the Republican presidential nomination is already underway, the identity of President Obama’s GOP challenger won’t be known for more than a year. Economic trends will have a major impact on the President’s reelection chances and unpredictable events, such as […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Obama and Reelection: One Term or Two?

, Senior Columnist

When it comes to presidents and reelection, two things seem clear. If they appear to be in control of events, they win. If events seem to be controlling them, they lose. Often the economy is their top concern, as almost certainly will be the case in 2012. In some elections, it is a foreign crisis […]

Our Continuing Focus on State Legislatures

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Thanks to Tim Storey and his colleagues at the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Crystal Ball can share with you the most up-to-date picture of power control in the states. It is summed up nicely in the two maps and one graph, below. Republicans now control both legislative chambers in exactly half the states, […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]