Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2010

The Midterm Election of ’62: A Real “October Surprise”

, Senior Columnist

This year’s midterm election has been compared to a number of others. But few political observers have brought up the election of 1962, whose outcome should serve as a cautionary tale as the 2010 campaign winds down. That election nearly a half century ago was redefined in its closing weeks by one of the greatest […]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes clear. This week we are […]

Midterm Morsels

Senate and Governor Ratings Changes and Check-Ups

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For now, we are comfortable with the overall projections that we have in the Senate (+7-8 Republican seats) and for Governorships (+8 Republican seats). But that doesn’t mean all the individual contests around the country are static. We have a few ratings changes to announce, and the Crystal Ball also has other races on a […]

Midterm Morsels

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Below we list some changes to our Senate and Governor ratings in a few key states, as well as a smattering of thoughts on a few other races of note. Next week the Crystal Ball will revisit some of our House ratings, with several significant changes in the works. Stay tuned. OHIO GOVERNOR (CHANGE: Toss-Up […]

Will the Republicans Win Back the House in November?

, Guest Columnist

This week the Crystal Ball publishes a prediction that suggests the House majority may stay with the Democrats, written by Professor Alfred G. Cuzan of the University of West Florida. While Professor Cuzan makes a compelling case, the Crystal Ball’s unique dual method—examining all 435 House races individually and incorporating the result of statistical analysis […]

Center for Politics Announces Plans For “Kennedy Half-Century”

On the eve of 50th anniversary of the election of President John F. Kennedy, the University Center for Politics announced details for a major new book on JFK by Center Director Larry J. Sabato and the production of a national television documentary focused on the legacies of President Kennedy and his administration. Also, later this […]

What to Expect in 2010

Predicting House Seats from Gallup’s Final Likely Voter Poll

, Senior Columnist

The Gallup Poll’s final likely voter poll has proven to be a highly accurate predictor of the results of midterm elections for the House of Representatives. In 13 midterm elections between 1950 and 2006 for which Gallup estimated the preferences of likely voters, the correlation between the Republican margin among likely voters in the final […]

Midterm Morsels

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just having issued our Labor Day predictions, we’re not quite ready to call any of the remaining toss-ups or change any ratings (with one prominent exception), but we thought we’d share our current inclinations on a few of them in “nutshell” form. Colorado Senate: After a visit last week, it’s more obvious than ever that […]

Tweets of the Week

, U.Va. Center for Politics

This week, the Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week takes a special look back at the highlights of the busy week in politics from the perspectives of University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato and Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood. @IsaacWood on 11:08 AM Sep 10th: NRCC’s […]

A Troubling Indicator for Both Parties?

, Senior Columnist

Virtually every leading political indicator points to a midterm election this November that could range anywhere from difficult to disastrous for Democrats. The nation’s high unemployment rate, the declining approval ratings for President Barack Obama, and the Democrats’ lingering deficit in the generic congressional ballot all paint a dark picture for the ruling party. And […]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

GA-2 (Sanford Bishop-D): After nearly two decades in Congress in a Southwest Georgia district that is nearly 50% African-American, Democrat Sanford Bishop was not exactly at the top of many Republican target lists. Given the Republican wave that seems to be brewing, however, and the potential for a greatly diminished minority turnout in 2010, he […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Sixty Days to Go

The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist […]