Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2010

Incumbent Defeats by the Numbers

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

At the Crystal Ball we receive many requests for information about the history of congressional elections, and there are many ways to look at this topic. In the two simple bar graphs below, we present one way to conceptualize a key part of the contests for Congress. How many incumbents lose for the House and […]

Plus Ca Change…

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The truth gets lost in the ups and downs of the daily headlines. Not as much changes in politics as observers often assert. If you doubt this, take a look at the chart (below) comparing President Obama’s showing among various subgroups (gender, race, age, etc.) on election day 2008 with the average Obama job approval […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Senate: All Classes Aren’t Equal

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Our astute political readership is well aware that the United States Senate has been divided into three classes since the beginning of the Constitutional Republic. That’s because, with a six-year term for each senator, only one-third of the Senate is elected every two years. Senators were elected by the state legislatures until the ratification of […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Caught in the Tide

Using the Generic Ballot to Forecast Gubernatorial Elections

, Senior Columnist

Governors are key players in the American federal system. In addition to administering complex bureaucratic organizations with vital responsibilities and multi-billion dollar budgets, they are expected to propose their own legislative programs, work closely with their state’s congressional delegation, communicate their goals to the public, and lead their state parties in elections. Moreover, in recent […]

State Legislatures in Play

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

In the past two weeks, the Crystal Ball has published its first extended state legislative analyses, looking at the 6,115 seats in the state senates and the state houses up in November (in 46 states). Tim Storey of the NCSL identified the chambers that are competitive and thus most likely to switch party control after […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Record-Setting Midterm of 2010

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Everyone already knows the 2010 elections are significant and competitive. Let’s add record-setting to that description. Why? 2010 features the most U.S. Senate seats on the November ballot (37) since 1962. 2010 also has the most elections for governor ever on the same ballot (also 37). 2010 has produced one of the highest percentages of […]

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

2010 MIDTERM EDITION, SUMMER INSTALLMENT

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Every campaign season is filled with the good, the bad, and the ugly—enough to fill a book. Here’s an interim selection of examples as we prepare to enter the full-blown general election season. GOOD CANDIDATE DOING BADLY: In another year, Congressman—we mean Sheriff—Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) could win the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Evan Bayh […]

The Polarization of the Supreme Court

, Guest Columnist

On the eve of Elena Kagan’s expected confirmation to the Supreme Court, we are delighted to share with our readers the following piece from David Kuhn, the Chief Political Correspondent for RealClearPolitics. We have become accustomed to “minimum winning coalitions” in recent decades. But throughout the 19th century, a one-vote majority decided only 1 percent […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]