Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2010

For House Democrats: More Favorable Terrain Than ‘94

, Senior Columnist

Editor’s Note: Following last week’s article by Prof. Alan Abramowitz comparing 1994 and 2010 on the basis of open seat races, noted political author and Wall Street Journal online columnist Rhodes Cook delves into the differences between the “political terrain” of 1994 and that facing Democrats today. His smart commentary and scholarly analysis serves as […]

Midterm Morsels: Terrific Tri-State Tuesday

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

On Tuesday, political junkies were treated to the latest in a seemingly unending series of primaries. Several critical statewide nominations were determined in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah. Our updates, written by the voters more than us, are below. NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in […]

Midterm Morsels: House

, House Race Editor

While this week’s House primaries and runoffs could not match the June 8th contests in sheer number, they made up for it in drama, intrigue, and good old fashioned controversy. Here are five quick takes from the most interesting of those races that were on the ballot Tuesday. SC-1: Oh the times, they are a-changing. […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Can Republicans Take Back the House?

, Senior Columnist

Editor’s Note: These days the best D.C. parlor game is guessing November’s House results. We’ve recently made our own contribution, with a district-by-district analysis that projects—as of early June—a Republican net gain of 32 seats. But the Crystal Ball has always done House projections in two ways. The second method requires advanced statistical modeling of […]

Midterm Morsels

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

For all our current ratings please see our Crystal Ball website for Senate and Governor. Governor ALABAMA GOVERNOR: The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Governor and Senate Primary Updates

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With the biggest primary night of 2010 now over, more and more of the midterm picture is coming into focus. The Crystal Ball brings you the following quick takes from the hottest Senate and Governor primary races that were decided this week: ARKANSAS Senate: In the biggest upset of the June 8th primary night, two-term […]

House Primary Update

, House Race Editor

Tuesday night was a big night for some key U.S. House primaries, especially on the GOP side. Read on for a summary of the results and situation in the most important districts where nominations where decided last night: VA-02: In spite of all the talk of an anti-establishment primary season, the clear establishment candidate emerged […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Statehouse Picture Slowly Emerging

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There’s now no question that the gubernatorial turnover in November will be historic, with half or more of the states electing new governors (see our previous article on the subject here). With 37 of the 50 states electing governors, and 23 of those states having no incumbent running with additional incumbents in serious electoral trouble, […]

The Gulf Oil Spill as Obama’s Katrina

, Senior Columnist

With millions of gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico, 11 oil rig workers dead, thousands of jobs in the fishing and tourist industries in jeopardy, and untold damage to beaches, wetlands, and wildlife, the Gulf oil spill is already a massive human, economic, and environmental catastrophe. There is growing public frustration with […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]