Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for May, 2010

May House Update

GOP Gains Likely, Majority Uncertain

, House Race Editor

Like many beleaguered sports fans, as the calendar turned to 2010, Republicans across the country were conjuring up the same thought: “This is the year!” After disastrous House elections in 2006 and 2008, Republicans dropped from their high-water mark of 232 House seats—their largest total since 1949—to just 178—their lowest total in a decade and […]

The Myth of the Angry Voter

The voters are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. In the wake of last week’s primaries, that is the conventional wisdom about the 2010 midterm elections among the Washington commentariat. Congressional incumbents of both parties are facing grave danger, the argument goes, as angry voters prepare to exact revenge at […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

May Senate Update

SENATE SHAKEUP MOVING THROUGH PRIMARY SEASON

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The primary season is here, hot and heavy, and it has changed the Senate picture since our last update in April. Some of our individual race ratings have shifted, but our forecast still calls for sizeable Republican gains in November. Democrats are hoping that an improved economy will transform this portrait by the fall—and it […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Head and Heart of Elena Kagan

, Guest Columnist

President Obama’s selection of Solicitor General Elena Kagan to fill the seat of retiring Justice John Paul Stevens was hardly a surprise. It was a well known fact that the President’s personal regard and respect for Kagan has been deep and longstanding. But as the carefully orchestrated minuet that will be her confirmation hearings ramps […]

A Female Trinity:

Ginsburg, Sotomayor, and Kagan on the U.S. Supreme Court

, Guest Columnist

For the past two decades I have taught at Sweet Briar, a liberal arts college for women in central Virginia. Faddish theories about gender-based education have come and gone during those same twenty years, but one constant remains. The undergraduates in my constitutional law classes adore meeting women Supreme Court justices. Last month I delivered […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Health Care as an Issue in the Midterm Election

, Senior Columnist

Since the passage of the Democratic health care reform bill in March, congressional Republicans have been promising to turn the 2010 midterm election into a referendum on the new law. Party leaders including House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have argued that campaigning for repeal of health care reform will […]

Stopping the Streak

Democrats’ historic House special election winning streak on the line

, House Race Editor

The last time a Democrat lost a special election for a U.S. House seat, George W. Bush was still president and gas was almost $4 a gallon. It was way back on May 3, 2008 when Hillary Clinton was still battling Barack Obama tooth-and-nail for the Democratic presidential nomination. Even though Democrats lost that special […]

Wi-7: David Obey’s Departure

Should GOP throw a retirement party?

, House Race Editor

David Obey’s retirement announcement reshuffles the House deck for both parties. Democrats are scrambling to ensure other veteran Democrats do not follow suit, after thinking that the retirement tide had been stemmed. For Republicans the odds of a House majority do not look quite as long now that one of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s key allies […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]