Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2010

Midterms Past: The ’66 Parallel

, Senior Columnist

For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a good occasion to look at […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Ag: Attorney General as Aspiring Governor

Hint: It’s Twice as Good to be Lieutenant Governor

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Political observers have had their attention directed to state attorneys general of late, due to the court suits against the federal health care reform bill initially filed by fifteen AGs (14 of them Republican, and a lone Democrat from Louisiana). With twenty or more states now signed on to the lawsuits, attorneys general are in […]

Uk Leaders’ Debate Debut

Which Party Leader's Leading?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The following piece was written in the hour after the historic April 15 leaders’ debate in the UK and published by the Guardian the next day. From an American perspective, there was a clear winner in the first-ever UK party leaders debate, the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Clegg. He looked sharp, was consistently articulate, and was […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Justice John Paul Stevens’ Supreme Court Odyssey

From Gerald Ford Republican to Barack Obama Democrat

, Guest Columnist

During my first meeting with Justice John Paul Stevens in his Supreme Court chambers back in 1985, he impressed me with his charming modesty, Midwestern common sense, keen intellect, and judicial temperament. All of these traits, which he applied so skillfully to this work on the Court over the last thirty-four years, will make him […]

Obama’s Nominee: A Cloudy Crystal Ball

, Guest Columnist

While nobody was surprised when Justice John Paul Stevens announced that he was leaving the Supreme Court just a few days before his 90th birthday, many had hoped he would hold off until after the midterm elections. Just a few short weeks after the bruising congressional fight over health reform legislation, and with the Senate […]

Reforming the Least Democratic Branch

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The U.S. Supreme Court is neither democratic nor easily changed, to some Americans’ delight and others’ dismay. No one would seriously propose that we elect Justices—just take a look at the tawdry contests in states that put their supreme courts and various judicial posts on the ballot. But is the third federal branch so perfect […]

April Senate Update

MANY HOT RACES BUT LEVEL OF GOP GAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

A lot has happened since our last Senate update in January. And yet overall, the balance hasn’t changed dramatically. Republicans are still likely to gain seats in a cycle that started off in 2009 looking good for Democrats. But how many new GOP senators will there be? It’s time for a dose of reality in […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Taking the Stress Out of Political Message Testing Polls

, Guest Columnists

The University of Virginia Center for Politics sponsored recently a study of message testing polls, as part of its commitment to ensuring “Politics is a good thing!” As a service to our Crystal Ball readers, we now present the preliminary results of this research. As we approach another election season, there is the possibility that […]

President Obama: Another Carter or Another Reagan?

, Guest Columnist

In his first year in the White House, Barack Obama’s job approval fell about fifteen points. (The source for all poll data analyzed in this article is the Roper Center.) This steep decline was unusual but not unprecedented for a new president. Two others, one from each party, stand out: Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]