Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2010

Hamstrung by Health Care?

Two Ways to Lose a House Majority

, Senior Columnist

Each party in the last two decades has benefited from “big wave” elections to win control of the House of Representatives – the Republicans in 1994, the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, when they turned a distinct minority in the House into a solid majority. Whether 2010 will be another such historic election that restores […]

Straddling the Party Line: Health Care and the Tenuous Twenty

, House Race Editor

Looking back at last Sunday’s House vote on health care reform, it is crystal clear that the party leanings of congressional districts, not just the party identification of the congressmen, influenced the final tally. Currently, there are 46 Democrats in the House who represent districts won by John McCain in 2008. Even as the bill […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Governorships 2010: The Changing of the Guard

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Back in 1980, the Washington Post’s David S. Broder wrote a notable book, The Changing of the Guard, about the generational turnover of national and state leadership occurring at that time. It’s happening all over again. We’ll see dozens of congressional seats switching hands and sides in November, but the greatest transformation will be in […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Beyond 2010: Demographic Change and the Future of the Republican Party

, Senior Columnist

Less than 16 months after an election in which Republicans lost the presidency along with 8 Senate seats and 21 House seats, giving Democrats full control of the federal government for the first time since 1995, the GOP appears poised to make substantial gains in the 2010 midterm elections. In the aftermath of Republican Scott […]

House Race Reports

, House Race Editor

AR-1 (OPEN-D): This seat being vacated by Democrat Marion Berry is in Republican territory, but a rare recruiting strike-out for Republicans this cycle now gives Democrats a better-than-even chance at retaining the seat. The Crystal Ball now rates the seat as Leans D. MA-10 (OPEN-D): This week marked the end of the worst kept secret […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

2010 Primaries: Gauging Anti-Incumbent Sentiment

, Senior Columnist

The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America’s electoral process. In recent years, only a few such incumbents have lost their bids for renomination, and only a handful more have had to break a sweat. No sitting senator or […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]