Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2010

What to Expect in November

An Update on the House of Representatives

, Senior Columnist

Just about everyone agrees that Republicans will be gaining a sizeable number of U.S. House seats come November, but this far in advance, few agree on the exact number. We’ve seen a couple of dozen predictions so far, and the range is from +10 GOP to +50 GOP—quite a spread. To our knowledge, the Crystal […]

House Ratings Changes

, House Race Editor

It has only been a week since the Crystal Ball published our most recent comprehensive view of House races across the country, but political news abhors a vacuum and there already many new developments to report. All nine ratings changes this week benefit Republicans, further evidence of the many advantages they face across the country […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Republican Renaissance?

GOP will gain significantly, but probably remain in House minority

, House Race Editor

The last two U.S. House of Representatives elections have been Democratic landslides that have left them with a 79-seat majority. In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats on election night (exactly as the Crystal Ball predicted, by the way) and didn’t lose a single seat of their own, even adding another pick-up in a December […]

Jfk’s Golden Anniversary

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Did you see the newly released color film clip of President and Mrs. Kennedy’s arrival at Love Field in Dallas on November 22, 1963? If you haven’t yet, you can see it here: http://jfk.org/go/collections/ward-warren-film Ward Warren, a 15-year old high school student, took his 8 millimeter camera to the airport that awful day, and captured […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Bye Bye Bayh

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Anybody who says Evan Bayh is retiring because he feared being defeated by ex-Sen. Dan Coats is dead wrong. Bayh was the clear favorite in that match-up, and Coats has been damaged by the lobbying and residency revelations about him over the last couple of weeks. And that’s why this is such a setback for […]

Does Congressional Popularity Matter?

, Senior Columnist

Congress is very unpopular. Like President Obama, Congress has seen its approval rating decline in recent months. But Congress is a good deal less popular than the President. According to the Gallup Poll, Mr. Obama’s approval rating has been hovering in the vicinity of 50% recently but in December only 25% of Americans approved of […]

Notes on the State of Politics

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

This week, the Crystal Ball publishes another installment in our intermittent series of observations on the politics of the day. Jefferson aficionados will find the title familiar, as they know he penned just one book in his lifetime, Notes on the State of Virginia. As a salute to the man from Monticello, we bring you […]

House Race Updates

, House Race Editor

The Crystal Ball moves PA-12 to “toss-up” following the passing of long-time Representative John Murtha. The vacancy sets up what will be the most hotly contested House special election since the NY-23 race last November. In a further parallel with the NY-23 special election, both party nominees will be chosen by party committees, instead of […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

State of the Statehouses

The Crystal Ball's New Governor Ratings for 2010

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With the primaries in Illinois this past Tuesday, the first ballots have now been cast in the 2010 elections. Naturally, most attention by national pundits has been lavished on the Senate and House contests, since members of Congress—wherever they are elected—have an impact on all of us. Governors affect only their own states in most […]

What Is Wrong With Those Tea Partiers?

, Guest Columnist

The truth has triumphed, at least for those attending this week’s Tea Party convention in Nashville: Obama is a socialist fascist communist statist Muslim whose healthcare “reform” would destroy the world’s greatest healthcare system and force Americans to wait in long lines so that their medical requests could be reviewed by death panels. This is […]

Keeping Our Senate Sensibility

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball was the first to project that Republicans had a good chance to pull Democrats all the way down to 52 Senate seats in November. (See our latest Senate article here). So we’re certainly not hesitant to predict big Republican gains. But any serious suggestion that the GOP can win outright the 51 […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]