Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2010

The End of Hope?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The famous 2008 campaign poster of Barack Obama—a saintly visage of the candidate above one word, “Hope”—still hangs in many a Democratic home. But a year into his presidency, there is a good deal less hope than before. As Mr. Obama gave his first State of the Union address, it seemed at times more like […]

For Democrats, It’s Time to Worry

, Senior Columnist

For Democrats, it is officially time to worry. The party’s gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey last fall could be partially explained away as the states’ usual off-year swing to the “out” party. But Republican Scott Brown’s come-from-behind victory last week in the special Massachusetts Senate election for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat is something […]

A Populist Panacea?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

I’ll admit it. I love populism. In my youth I was always drawn to populist candidates. For over eight months I’ve been predicting that 2010 would be the Year of the Populist, and this prediction has come true. Populism is the only approach that makes sense in this angry, miserable time full of resentful voters. […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Rating Change: Delaware Senate

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With the decision by Attorney General Beau Biden (D) not to run, the Crystal Ball has just changed its rating on the Delaware Senate race from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. Congressman Mike Castle (R) is now the favorite to win the seat of interim Sen. Ted Kaufman, formerly held by Vice President Joe Biden. This […]

Senate 2010: More Shocks on the Way?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

With Tuesday night’s upset by Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts, the GOP gained more than just a 41st vote to disrupt the Obama agenda. As attention turns to the midterm elections in November, the Republican Party has strong momentum. A few months ago, even GOP leaders said that taking over the Senate was a pipe […]

Obama’s First Year

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As we look back on a tumultuous first year for President Barack Obama, three questions matter. What have we learned about him? What has he learned about his job? And how much does the first year foretell about the Obama presidency? In many ways Obama in office has acted much as advertised on the campaign […]

Why Republicans Should Get on the Redistricting Reform Bandwagon

, Guest Columnist

Once every decade–in years that end in zero–true political junkies get to spend an entire year basking in the glow of the national campaign over redistricting. For them, it’s like the Super Bowl, March Madness, the World Series, and the Daytona 500 all wrapped up in one, but spread out over dozens of key states. […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Notes on the State of Politics in the New Year

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Surprise Retirements What a difference a day makes. Two Democratic senators, both likely reelection losers, throw in the towel. The incumbent Democratic governor of key swing state Colorado shocks everyone by declining to run for a second term. And the all-but-certain Democratic nominee for governor of Michigan, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, drops out because he […]

Open Seats and U.s. House Elections

, Senior Columnist

Recent announcements by four Democratic incumbents from marginal or Republican-leaning districts that they will not run for reelection next year have set off a wave of speculation by pundits and strategists over whether a wave of such retirements could put Democrats in serious danger of losing control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 […]