Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for October, 2009

So Who’s Going to Win? Look to the North Stars

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

We’re heading ’round the final bend in this year’s Virginia contest for governor, so it’s time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial “north stars.” These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. Taking the measure of our ten north stars has proven predictive for all […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Seeing Spots: Campaign Advertising in the 2009 Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial Races

, Guest Columnists

COPYRIGHT 2009 BY SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Campaign ads provide a window into any election. Who are the candidates? What do they stand for? What issues are at stake in the race? Campaign ads help to define the candidates, set the agenda of the campaign, and provide the critical information–wrapped up in a […]

Presidents and Their Party’s Primaries

, Senior Columnist

On many of the great issues of the day, President Barack Obama has drawn some criticism for a lack of decisive leadership. But he has shown little hesitation in taking sides in some high-profile Democratic primaries that could just as readily divide the party in 2010 as unite it. In Colorado, Obama is backing appointed […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Statehouse Rock 2010

THE FALL '09 UPDATE--Part Two

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: Last week, Larry Sabato examined the 2009 and 2010 races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. This week, in part two of his analysis, he analyzes the Southern and Western races. Counting New Jersey and Virginia in 2009, 39 of the 50 governorships will be decided in the next thirteen […]

Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize

A new kind of October suprise

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

I didn’t need my coffee this morning. The stunning Nobel announcement sufficed. I’m only competent to address the political implications. For President Obama, the enhanced prestige is an intangible element that can help him on the international stage. It may also make some difference in his quest for health care reform. This is because the […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Crystal Ball Ratings Changes

, U.Va. Center for Politics

DELAWARE- SENATE: Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice President has great sway, but […]

What Will Virginia’s Turnout Be on November 3rd?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

There is no exact formula for projecting the number of voters that will turn out on any given Election Day. The intensity of the contest, the issues being discussed, and the hot-or-cold personalities of the candidates can spike turnout up or down. But history can provide some clues. Voting is like inertia in most years. […]

Statehouse Rock 2010

THE FALL '09 UPDATE

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Editor’s Note: This week, Larry Sabato examines the races for governor taking place in the Northeast and Midwest. Next week, in part two of his analysis, he will analyze the Southern and Western races. Enjoy! With the off-year midterms just a year away, the Crystal Ball will focus on the statehouses. It gets us out […]

Ideology in the American Public

, Senior Columnist

Is the United States today a center-left nation or a center-right nation? There is no question that Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 presidential election and the Democratic gains in the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections dramatically changed the ideological make-up of America’s political leadership. On almost every major domestic and foreign policy issue, Barack […]