Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2009

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Congressional Democrats: From Minority to Majority… And Back Again?

, Senior Columnist

When the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, few political pundits saw it coming. But such a prospect in 2010, particularly a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, is already being discussed as a real prospect. In 1994, Republicans gained more than 50 seats to win control of the House. Currently, their “magic […]

Deja Vu All Over Again?

Why a Repeat of 1994 is Highly Unlikely

, Guest Columnist

Could Democrats be heading toward an electoral disaster comparable to the 1994 midterm election in which they lost 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, turning control of both chambers over to Republicans for the remainder of Bill Clinton’s presidency? Nobody is predicting such a dramatic turnaround in party fortunes just yet. But while a […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

First Year Approval Ratings, Richard Nixon

The graphs below show Gallup approval ratings for the first year of each of Richard Nixon’s presidential terms.

First Year Approval Ratings by President, 1977-2009

The graphs below show Gallup approval ratings for each president from 1977-2009, month by month, for the first year of their presidency.

The Presidential Jinx

A Note on an Electoral Phenomenon

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It was nearly twenty years ago. While assessing L. Douglas Wilder’s 1989 victory for governor of Virginia, I first noticed that for four consecutive elections (1977, 1981, 1985, and 1989), the Old Dominion had voted for the gubernatorial nominee of the party opposite to the one controlling the White House. It merited a paragraph, but […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

The Crystal Ball’s House 2010 Ratings

, House Race Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Is the Gop on the Cusp of Another 1994?

, House Race Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

All sound electoral predictions are grounded in history. Astute observers look back over the electoral landscape of the past and pick the bits and pieces of past years that match the conditions of the present. The upcoming House of Representatives elections in 2010 require the same approach. With that in mind, the Crystal Ball embarks […]

Red Dawn: Gop Revival for 2010 House?

Republicans will pick up substantially, but fall short of full control

, U.Va. Center for Politics

While the next slate of House elections does not occur until 2010, congressmen and their challengers certainly don’t take off the “off-year.” Instead, this year is a crucial one for the parties who must prove their recruiting chops, for the incumbents who seek big fundraising numbers and positive headlines, and for the challengers who have […]

Tweets of the Week

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here. […]

Despite Falling Poll Numbers, Little Evidence of Erosion in Obama’s Base

, Guest Columnist

Over the past several weeks President Obama has seen his approval rating fall from the low-60s to the low-50s in national polls. The president has come under attack recently not only from pundits and politicians on the right upset with his proposals to expand the role of government in health care and energy but from […]

Forecasting the Midterm Elections

An Early Look at What to Expect in 2010

, Guest Columnist

COPYRIGHT 2009 SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL The 2010 midterm election is still 14 months away. Fourteen months is a lifetime in politics. We don’t know how many House and Senate incumbents from each party will be retiring, how many incumbents from each party will be facing serious challengers or what the national political climate will be […]