Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2009

New Jersey Governor Showdown

, Staff Writer

Before we dive into New Jersey’s surprisingly intriguing 2009 race for governor, let us premise everything that follows on the fact that any Republican running in New Jersey enters the batter’s box with two strikes, two outs, nobody on, and down two runs. Let us not kid ourselves, here. That being said, Gov. Jon Corzine […]

The Obama Generation

Celebrity Worshippers or Responsible Citizens?

, Senior Columnist

Americans under the age of 30 played a major role in the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. According to the 2008 national exit poll, 18-29 year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate and they cast 66 percent of their votes for Obama vs. 32 percent for his […]

House Race Special: Extra Innings!

Special Election Recaps and Previews

The Washington Nationals aren’t the only D.C. team off to a disappointing start. House Republicans have already lost one special election contest, and the rest of the special election schedule looks bleak as well. And don’t forget the extra innings effort in NY-20, which Republicans have all but lost. In politics, as in baseball, April […]

High Interest Election, Media Boon

An Excerpt from The Year of Obama

, Associate Professor, Georgetown University

Editor’s Note: This piece is an excerpt from the new book, edited by Larry Sabato, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House. The American public was more interested in the 2008 campaign than in any other in over twenty years, and attention to news reached new heights. Sixty percent of registered […]

Obama and the Redefinition of Presidential Coattails

, Senior Columnist

Barack Obama showed considerable vote-getting ability in last fall’s presidential election, with a clear-cut win in both popular and electoral votes. But when it came to presidential coattails, his were of the same modest length of many of his immediate predecessors. A tally of the 2008 presidential vote by congressional district shows that Obama drew […]

Independent Voters and the President: Myths and Realities

, Senior Columnist

The importance of partisanship in contemporary American politics is widely recognized. Among the public as well as political leaders, party divisions run deep and it is increasingly clear that the arrival of a new President in Washington has done little to change that fundamental reality. Not only are Democrats and Republicans in Congress sharply divided […]

The Gop in New York: Going the Way of the Dinosaurs?

, Senior Columnist

The first special congressional election of the Obama administration took place March 31 in a Republican corner of Democratic New York. But the race in the Hudson River Valley for the seat of newly minted Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand produced no immediate winner. It remains undecided and will be settled in the days ahead after […]

Diverging Coalitions: The Transformation of the American Electorate

The election of America’s first black president has been widely hailed as an historic event. However, much less attention has been paid to the demographic trends which made that event possible and which will continue to affect elections and politics in the United States far into the future. In this article I examine those trends […]

California: The Key to the Electoral Lock

, Senior Columnist

California may be the Golden State, but it has been a while since people have called it that without a trace of sarcasm. With its double digit unemployment rate, difficult to balance budget, and crumbling infrastructure, California these days is anything but golden. That is, with the exception of its mother lode of electoral votes. […]