Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for February, 2009

Senate 2010: A Three-Peat for Democrats or Comeback for the Gop?

Part Three of Three

Two weeks ago we discussed the basic framework for 2010’s thirty-six Senate elections. Last week we reviewed the seventeen Democratic Senate seats that are on the ballot in the midterm year. Now let’s see how the nineteen Republican-held seats for 2010 are shaping up in the initial stages: Robert Bennett (R-UT): Bennett should seek and […]

Senate 2010: A Three-Peat for Democrats or Comeback for the Gop?

Part Two of Three

Last week in the Crystal Ball, we looked at the historical background of off-year Senate elections and laid the groundwork for the earliest possible projection of the 36 contests on the ballot in 2010. This week we call the Senate roll among sitting Democrats to see who appears safe and who might be in trouble. […]

Not Your Father’s Democratic Congress

, Senior Columnist

The last two Democratic presidents have a lot in common. Like Bill Clinton before him, Barack Obama is a gifted 40-something politician, a strong orator with a high likeability quotient, and a successful candidate who captured the White House by running on a platform offering big change. And like Clinton, Obama begins his administration blessed […]

Senate 2010: A Three-Peat for Democrats or Comeback for the Gop?

Part One of Three

It’s never too early for the Crystal Ball to look ahead to the next election. But unlike the Wizard of Oz’s phony orb (when he’s still the Kansas medicine man who peeks into Dorothy’s purse for photos of Auntie Em), we try to run an honest Ball. That means we have to tell you that […]

The False Hope of Bipartisanship

It’s not a matter of “if.” It’s a matter of “when.” As in, when will all of the feel-good rhetoric about Democrats and Republicans joining hands to solve the nation’s problems come to an end and open partisan warfare resume in Washington? In fact, that time may already be here. Despite Barack Obama’s efforts to […]

Playing It Straight

The Minnesota Model of Election Administration

, Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota

Did the Wall Street Meltdown Change the Election?

A Reply to James Campbell

Editor’s Note: Several weeks ago, the Crystal Ball published a 2008 election analysis by Prof. Larry Sabato, which concluded in part that Democrats were destined to win the presidential election, given prevailing conditions. Then Prof. Jim Campbell of The University at Buffalo took issue with that conclusion, arguing that the mid-September financial meltdown had derailed […]