Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2009

The 2008 Election in Perspective

The Unexpected Wall Street Meltdown Election

, Professor and Chair, University at Buffalo, SUNY

Some political analysts have interpreted the 2008 presidential election as an ordinary retrospective election. With a very unpopular Republican incumbent presiding over unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a weak economy, 2008 appeared to be a Democratic year. As the often insightful Larry Sabato put it in his recent essay, “any mainstream Democratic candidate […]

The Georgia Senate Runoff: The First Shot of 2010?

, Senior Columnist

The 2008 election these days may seem long ago and far away. But it is worth remembering that while the Republicans had a bad time at the polls in November, they fared well in the array of contests that concluded the election cycle in December. The GOP scored two House wins last month in Louisiana, […]

The Honeymoon Begins

Questions and Answers About Obama's First Year

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Almost every American recognizes January 20, 2009 as a red-letter date in U.S. history. No one who witnessed the swearing-in of President Barack Obama will ever forget it, and rarely has so much emotion been wrapped up in an inauguration. The good feelings that have been generated cannot hurt at a time when the country […]

The 2008 Election in Perspective: Just What We Would Have Expected

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The following is an excerpt from the forthcoming book, The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House. The book, which features several frequent Crystal Ball contributors as well as other journalists and scholars, will be published by Pearson Longman in March 2009. –The Editors Some readers will be very surprised by our […]

Inaugurations Past and Present

How Will Obama Measure Up?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Rituals matter in any society, but in a democracy they are especially significant. Most authoritarian regimes are stable for long periods of time; the barrel of a gun ensures it. Democratic societies can change rapidly with public opinion, and a new administration is frequently the polar opposite of its predecessor. How best to balance the […]