Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2008

Lessons Spoke to Nation’s Mood

This article is republished courtesy of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

As routine as elections may seem, they are the seminal events in the life of a democracy. Campaigns and elections not only set the direction of the Republic, they also shed light on America’s political health. Every November we have the opportunity to take stock of what we did at the polls, and what that […]

In the Red Corner…

, Director of Communications, U.Va. Center for Politics

Here’s the worst kept secret in politics: Presidential campaigning never ends. For periods of time it becomes quieter–a little subtler–but it never stops. Every morning 100 senators, 50 governors, quite a few grandees in the House of Representatives, and an assortment of corporate titans all hear their Rice Krispies shouting “2012!” “FORM A PRESIDENTIAL EXPLORATORY […]

Negative Campaigning–what’s New?

This article is republished courtesy of the Los Angeles Times.

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

In 1800, Thomas Jefferson endured a presidential campaign in which supporters of his opponent, President John Adams, labored mightily to convince the public that the then-vice president was an atheistic coward hell-bent on ripping Bibles from the homes of God-fearing Americans. A Jeffersonian writer, in turn, called Adams a “hideous hermaphroditical character which has neither […]

From Republican ‘Lock’ To Republican ‘Lockout’?

, Senior Columnist

Every day since Nov. 4, the scope of Democrat Barack Obama’s victory has grown more impressive. His electoral vote total of 364 is the highest for any presidential winner since Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996. His 53 percent share of the total popular vote is the largest since George H.W. Bush won a comparable proportion […]

The Crystal Ball Scores Near Perfect Record for Accuracy in Predicting 2008 Election Outcomes

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the […]

2008 Election Recap

The Crystal Ball Scores Near Perfect Record for Accuracy in Predicting 2008 Election Outcomes

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the […]

The Last Last Word

The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that […]