July 31st, 2008
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For those voters who have come of age in the 21st century, the extremely close presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 must seem like the norm. But that is hardly the case. Over the course of American history, there have been more presidential elections decided by landslide margins than have been determined by narrow [...]
July 29th, 2008
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We have no earthly idea if Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is Obama’s choice for Vice President. All we know is that distinguished reporters who claim to have good sources are calling and saying that Kaine is on the short-short list.
Since the Crystal Ball is based in Virginia, and since we have followed [...]
July 24th, 2008
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In their examination of the fundamentals and the polls to this point in the 2008 election, my esteemed colleagues Alan Abramowitz, Tom Mann, and Larry Sabato indicate that they believe that the presidential election is essentially a done deal. As they see the 2008 story developing, Barack Obama will win a comfortable victory, if [...]
July 24th, 2008
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If you’re a political junkie like me, and if you’re reading this article there’s a pretty good chance you are, then you’re probably addicted to the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. Where else can you follow the ups and downs of the presidential race every day? I can hardly wait to get my daily [...]
July 24th, 2008
“Too close to call.” “Within the margin of error.” “A statistical dead heat.” If you’ve been following news coverage of the 2008 presidential election, you’re probably familiar with these phrases. Media commentary on the presidential horserace, reflecting the results of a series of new national polls, has strained to make a case for a [...]
July 17th, 2008
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Speculation abounds these days about whether this fall’s presidential election will produce a dramatically different electoral map than the virtually static one of the last two contests. Will Colorado and Virginia lead an array of longtime Republican states that might be won this time by Democrat Barack Obama? Or might Michigan and Pennsylvania be in [...]
July 17th, 2008
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“Poll Finds Obama’s Run Isn’t Closing Divide on Race,” reads the headline on the front page of the July 16th New York Times. The article beneath the headline observes that despite Barack Obama’s candidacy, the results of a new CBS/New York Times Poll show that American society is still deeply divided along racial lines. [...]
July 10th, 2008
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Want to fix an election? No, I’m not proposing any Election Day shenanigans, but rather some preventive maintenance for a very old machine.
Our system of electing a President is nothing short of chaotic, and it can be confusing even to the most seasoned political observer. Goodness knows, it could be done better, [...]
July 10th, 2008
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Nobody now knows the exact contours of the November 4th Electoral College map. Nobody will know them until after the polls have closed. But except for the guessing game about the vice presidential nominations, there’s no greater fun to be had in July. So the Crystal Ball is pleased to unveil our best estimates [...]
July 10th, 2008
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In a recent Crystal Ball article, Michael Baudinet of the University of Virginia Center for Politics argued that despite a very difficult national political environment for Republicans, John McCain has a good chance of winning the 2008 presidential election because he enjoys one key advantage over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama: McCain clinched his [...]
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