Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for June, 2008

Time Is on My Side: The Nomination Gap

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Much has been made in the past of presidential candidates’ campaign theme songs, but there would be no more appropriate choice for this year’s Republican nominee, John McCain, than the Rolling Stones’ classic, “Time Is on My Side.” Political observers, including your Crystal Ball, are virtually unanimous in their assessment that the prevailing conditions this […]

Senate Sensibilities – The Update

The '08 battles for the U.S. Senate

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn […]

The Electoral Barometer vs. The Polls

, Guest Columnist

A question that keeps arising in connection with this year’s presidential race is why, given the extremely favorable political environment for Democrats, Barack Obama has not been able to establish a clear lead over John McCain in national polls. Based on President Bush’s extraordinarily low approval ratings (28 percent in the most recent Gallup Poll), […]

Congressional Combat, Continued

2008 contests for the U.S. House - June update

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a good year. Nothing has changed our forecast in the six months since, and if anything, we now see November 2008 as probably the best year Democrats have had in many a moon. Only a solid […]

Primary Concerns:

McCain, Obama have some base building to do

, Senior Columnist

For the first time in 40 years, the Democrats and Republicans are each on the verge of nominating a candidate who failed to attract even half of their party’s primary vote. Counting fully sanctioned, half sanctioned, and non-binding primaries, Barack Obama took 47 percent of this year’s Democratic vote and was matched virtually ballot for […]

How Obama Did It

Big states, small states, caucuses and campaign strategy

, Guest Columnist

Justin M. Sizemore, the latest guest contributor to the Crystal Ball, is a University of Virginia alumnus and attorney who will also author a chapter on the Democratic nomination battle for Larry J. Sabato’s forthcoming book on the 2008 election, America’s Historic Marathon, to be published in 2009. The Crystal Ball is very happy to […]