Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for April, 2008

Obama and Small-Town America

Many important votes lie outside cities and suburbs

, Senior Columnist

Barack Obama caused quite a stir a fortnight ago when he told a suburban San Francisco fund raiser that small-town Pennsylvania voters were “bitter” about their economic plight. As a consequence, he added, “they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them…” As political comments go, it was a self-inflicted […]

How Could John Mccain Win in November?

History versus circumstance in the general election

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s obvious to just about everyone that, at least theoretically, the Democrats have a near-perfect climate for presidential victory in 2008. A deeply unpopular Republican President is mired around 30 percent in the polls; last week, Bush was at 28 percent, a couple points higher than Richard Nixon on the day he resigned. Bush hasn’t […]

Will Disappointed Dems Vote for Mccain?

Crossover voting and defection in past elections

, Guest Columnist

Democratic leaders are becoming increasingly worried about the long-term consequences of the drawn-out and contentious presidential nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the past few weeks a number of prominent Democratic elected officials, including Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, have called on Hillary Clinton to consider […]

The Democratic End Game:

Who has the right credentials?

, Senior Columnist

One of the basic themes of the long-running Democratic nominating campaign between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton speaks to the need for a new era in American politics. But increasingly it seems as though their race could be decided by a method quite old–a decision by the convention credentials committee that is voted up or […]

What if Democrats Used Winner Take All?

Without proportional allocation Obama would trail

, Special Guest Columnist

Wesley Little is the Political Chair for Washington & Lee University’s “Mock Convention”, the nation’s most accurate mock convention since its inception in 1908, and a political columnist for several Virginia news papers, including the News Advance and the News-Gazette. Even as the Obama and Clinton campaigns fight frantically to establish the appropriate yard-stick by […]

Superdelegate Math

Unpledged delegate projections don't favor Clinton

, Special Guest Columnist

Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States (2004, McGraw-Hill). It is becoming increasingly clear that the outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination will hinge on the votes of the party’s so-called […]