Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2008

The Lash of Unfair Criticism

And the light of a revealing role model

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

John F. Kennedy was correct about life and politics when he famously said, “Life isn’t fair.” Not only is politics unfair, it may be the least fair part of life. In many election years, if we had blue-ribbon selection panels charged with considering only the qualifications and likely performance of potential presidents, governors, and senators, […]

The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics

Why the primary results and polling numbers aren't the Alpha and Omega

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

This week’s detour into the murk of racial politics underlines that it’s going to be a long, hard slog on the Democratic side. The next opportunity for Democrats to resolve their deadlock will come in June, once the primaries are over and every state (and territory) has had its say. And that is actually good […]

The Democratic Dogfight

Nomination resolution may be a long time coming

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

When 2008 began, it was impossible to find a nonpartisan analyst who did not project a big year for the Democrats. George W. Bush barely scaled 30 percent in the polls, the Iraq War was deeply unpopular and the economy was weakening. Moreover, both of the top Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, appeared to […]

A Virtual Tie:

Clinton, Obama divide the Democratic primary vote

, Senior Columnist

As the presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama approach the ides of March, they are virtually tied in the Democratic primary vote count. Include results from the unsanctioned contests in Florida and Michigan and Clinton leads by less than 80,000 votes out of almost 30 million Democratic primary ballots cast. Exclude these unsanctioned […]

The Real Threat to Mccain?

Disgruntled GOP moderates could impact party unity

, Special Guest Columnist

While the Crystal Ball continues to process the results of this week’s primaries, we are happy to welcome back Dr. Alan Abramowitz for another guest column this week. Alan is one of the most distinguished and best known political scientists in the United States today, and he has a rare talent for distilling data into […]