January 31st, 2008
Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a long-time friend of the Crystal Ball, sent us the following table, summarizing the national polls in January 2008. Alan writes:
“At this point, John McCain is the only Republican candidate who appears to have a realistic chance of defeating either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. McCain [...]
January 31st, 2008
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Ready or not, here it comes… Super-Duper Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday, Monster Tuesday, or whatever name one chooses to call it. The huge, historic nationwide vote Feb. 5 is at last at hand. Two dozen states from Massachusetts to California will vote next Tuesday, electing more than 40 percent of all Democratic and Republican delegates [...]
January 24th, 2008
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Now that Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina have voted, at least in one party, one thing is perfectly clear: While the identities of the two major-party nominees are not yet certain, the ranks on both sides have thinned dramatically and the finalists have emerged. For the Democrats, the nominee will [...]
January 17th, 2008
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One of the basic facts of American politics is that citizens will turn out to vote when they feel they have something to vote for. That was the case in 2004, when a record 122 million ballots were cast in an election that was essentially a referendum on the presidency of George W. Bush. [...]
January 10th, 2008
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First, we at the Crystal Ball want to get one thing straight with our readers. We are for change. We have worked for change our whole lives. We are truly change agents. And we haven’t just talked about change, we’ve accomplished change–as long as you consider publishing books and articles about change to be accomplishments [...]
January 3rd, 2008
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If you’re from Iowa, maybe you should just stop reading right now. I don’t want to spoil your big day.
I have nothing against the Hawkeye State. To the contrary, my visits there have invariably been pleasant, and my dealings with colleagues and journalists based in Iowa have been delightful.
It’s [...]
January 3rd, 2008
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It may not be that unusual for a large state to produce a pair of major presidential candidates within a generation, but for a small town to do so is astounding. That is the case with Hope, Arkansas, which is the birthplace of two modern-day White House aspirants–Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee.
Clinton, of course, was [...]
January 1st, 2008
How many more presidential candidates will Massachusetts produce? Mitt Romney is the latest to come from the state that gave us all three Kennedys, Michael Dukakis, and, most recently, John Kerry. The biggest difference? Romney is vying for the Republican nomination, even though he hails from this traditional liberal bastion. Romney is a multi-millionaire, and [...]
January 1st, 2008
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson could very well represent the changing face of American politics. Hispanics and Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, and both the Democrats and the Republicans will be well served to begin attracting more candidates from these burgeoning populations. Political analysts tend to see corollaries between [...]
January 1st, 2008
Tommy Tancredo had decided to put all his eggs in one basket, concentrating solely on his presidential campaign and announcing he will retire from the House of Representative at the end of this term. Concentrating on one thing at a time seems to be a thing with this Colorado Representative, who has staked his political [...]
January 1st, 2008
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With Election Day fast approaching, things are shaking out in terms of race outlooks. The following charts summarize the Crystal Ball’s current breakdown of the 2006 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Seats currently held by Republicans are printed in red text, and seats currently held by Democrats are printed in blue; party totals [...]
January 1st, 2008
Can America’s Mayor become America’s Chief Executive? Supporters of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani sure hope so. Giuliani’s strategy has centered around projecting an image of strong leadership, drawing on his experience in the aftermath of 9/11, especially on matters of national security and the war on terror. Perhaps the biggest obstacles to [...]
January 1st, 2008
The Crystal Ball recommends its best reads from both the bookstore and the web. Expand your scholarly know-how with the brightest in the business, and keep a watchful eye on political news with the most reliable sources in the media. You’ll be well on your way to being a seasoned pundit on your own.
Campbell, James [...]
January 1st, 2008
In case you still had any doubts about the power of the Internet, look no further than Ron Paul to dispel those doubts. The Texas Representative has found thousands of believers in his libertarian platform online, catapulting him to impressive fundraising numbers. A hard-line fiscal conservative, Paul supports cutting back in virtually every federal department, [...]
January 1st, 2008
Every nominating process needs someone to cover their party’s extreme flank, someone to take the outermost positions on key issues. For the Democrats, former Alaskan Senator Mike Gravel does just that. In an election cycle where the key issue for the Democrats will be ending the war in Iraq, Gravel is the man most vocally [...]
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