Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for January, 2008

The November Match-Ups, as Seen From January

Potentially positive news for McCain, Obama

Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a long-time friend of the Crystal Ball, sent us the following table, summarizing the national polls in January 2008. Alan writes: “At this point, John McCain is the only Republican candidate who appears to have a realistic chance of defeating either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. McCain does dramatically […]

Super Tuesday

A vast and varied test

, Senior Columnist

Ready or not, here it comes… Super-Duper Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday, Monster Tuesday, or whatever name one chooses to call it. The huge, historic nationwide vote Feb. 5 is at last at hand. Two dozen states from Massachusetts to California will vote next Tuesday, electing more than 40 percent of all Democratic and Republican delegates in […]

The Race for President

The finalists emerge

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Now that Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina have voted, at least in one party, one thing is perfectly clear: While the identities of the two major-party nominees are not yet certain, the ranks on both sides have thinned dramatically and the finalists have emerged. For the Democrats, the nominee will either […]

The Primary Turnout Boom

Where might it lead?

, Senior Columnist

One of the basic facts of American politics is that citizens will turn out to vote when they feel they have something to vote for. That was the case in 2004, when a record 122 million ballots were cast in an election that was essentially a referendum on the presidency of George W. Bush. And […]

Clinton as Truman, Mccain as Lazarus, Obama-Mania, Hucka-Boom or Bust, and the Presidential Players

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

First, we at the Crystal Ball want to get one thing straight with our readers. We are for change. We have worked for change our whole lives. We are truly change agents. And we haven’t just talked about change, we’ve accomplished change–as long as you consider publishing books and articles about change to be accomplishments […]

All Eyes on the Hawkeye State

But should we be watching so early and closely?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

If you’re from Iowa, maybe you should just stop reading right now. I don’t want to spoil your big day. I have nothing against the Hawkeye State. To the contrary, my visits there have invariably been pleasant, and my dealings with colleagues and journalists based in Iowa have been delightful. It’s just that (1) the […]

Rooted in “Hope”

Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee

, Senior Columnist

It may not be that unusual for a large state to produce a pair of major presidential candidates within a generation, but for a small town to do so is astounding. That is the case with Hope, Arkansas, which is the birthplace of two modern-day White House aspirants–Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee. Clinton, of course, […]

Mitt Romney

Republican Nominee

How many more presidential candidates will Massachusetts produce? Mitt Romney is the latest to come from the state that gave us all three Kennedys, Michael Dukakis, and, most recently, John Kerry. The biggest difference? Romney is vying for the Republican nomination, even though he hails from this traditional liberal bastion. Romney is a multi-millionaire, and […]

Bill Richardson

Democratic Nominee

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson could very well represent the changing face of American politics. Hispanics and Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, and both the Democrats and the Republicans will be well served to begin attracting more candidates from these burgeoning populations. Political analysts tend to see corollaries between […]

Tommy Tancredo

Republican Nominee

Tommy Tancredo had decided to put all his eggs in one basket, concentrating solely on his presidential campaign and announcing he will retire from the House of Representative at the end of this term. Concentrating on one thing at a time seems to be a thing with this Colorado Representative, who has staked his political […]

Rudy W. Giuliani

Republican Nominee

Can America’s Mayor become America’s Chief Executive? Supporters of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani sure hope so. Giuliani’s strategy has centered around projecting an image of strong leadership, drawing on his experience in the aftermath of 9/11, especially on matters of national security and the war on terror. Perhaps the biggest obstacles to […]

Crystal Ball Resources

The Crystal Ball recommends its best reads from both the bookstore and the web. Expand your scholarly know-how with the brightest in the business, and keep a watchful eye on political news with the most reliable sources in the media. You’ll be well on your way to being a seasoned pundit on your own. Campbell, […]

Ron Paul

Republican Nominee

In case you still had any doubts about the power of the Internet, look no further than Ron Paul to dispel those doubts. The Texas Representative has found thousands of believers in his libertarian platform online, catapulting him to impressive fundraising numbers. A hard-line fiscal conservative, Paul supports cutting back in virtually every federal department, […]

Mike Gravel

Democratic Nominee

Every nominating process needs someone to cover their party’s extreme flank, someone to take the outermost positions on key issues. For the Democrats, former Alaskan Senator Mike Gravel does just that. In an election cycle where the key issue for the Democrats will be ending the war in Iraq, Gravel is the man most vocally […]

Mike Huckabee

Republican Nominee

He was born in Hope, Arkansas, lives in the governor’s mansion in Little Rock, and has burst onto the national scene just as primary season approaches. While we could be referring to former President Bill Clinton, the same biographical sketch fits Republican contender Mike Huckabee as well. Huckabee has cracked wise several times about the […]