Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for May, 2007

Of Ashes and Sashes

Vacancy Signs Point to a Very "Special" Summer

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just as Ben Franklin assured us of two certainties in life, let the Crystal Ball assure you of two certainties in congressional special elections this year: deaths and taxpayer-funded University posts will be the cause (granted, you won’t hear us complaining too much about the latter). We’ll explain in a minute. At the moment, to […]

The 2007 Kentucky Gubernatorial Derby: It’s Fletcher vs. Beshear

PLUS: More Gubernatorial "Street Sense"

, U.Va. Center for Politics

The votes are in from yesterday’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary, and Democrats will have to try hard to lose this race in November. Despite a large field of six candidates, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear surprised many in the Democratic Party by crossing the 40 percent threshold–he received 40.9 percent in the preliminary tally–needed to prevent […]

Jerry Falwell and the Politics of Double-Edged Swords

PLUS: A Kentucky Barn Burner?

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Religion is well beyond the scope of the Crystal Ball (thank goodness), but there is no denying the intersection of religion and politics in America. In 1928 Democrat Al Smith lost in part because of his Catholicism, and John F. Kennedy nearly lost in 1960 for much the same reason. (At least one study has […]

Invisible Primaries

The Crystal Ball's "Magnificent Seven in '07"

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Sure, you’ve heard of the Iowa Caucuses, the New Hampshire Primary, and so on. But 2008’s first presidential pre-nomination contests are already underway, and have been for a long (and we’d argue, too long) time. They’re the “invisible” primaries, and for better or worse, we in the pundit class get to throw in our votes. […]

More From the Sixth Year Itch

Additional Chapter Excerpts from the New Book on the 2006 Midterms

Following up on last week’s preview, the Crystal Ball is happy to share more content from The Sixth Year Itch, a new book containing original chapters by political scholar and commentator Larry J. Sabato, as well as contributed chapters by prominent journalists and scholars who are on the political frontlines. Each essay offers trenchant commentary […]