Sabato's Crystal Ball

Archive for March, 2007

The Outrage of Early Vice Presidential Speculation

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

If there is one thing that we at the Crystal Ball cannot countenance, it is early conjecture about possible vice presidential running-mates for the 2008 major-party tickets. The presidential nominees are a year away from being chosen, and we are already facing the longest formal campaign for President in American history, due mainly to the […]

Electoral Trends Warm Sunbelt, Freeze Frostbelt

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Ah, fun with numbers. There’s nothing like it in the field of politics. Usually, we manipulate the numbers of public opinion polls, but this week we’ll crunch some population data instead. Last week the Crystal Ball’s David Wasserman went further than anyone has in projecting out the states’ estimated gains and losses in the U.S. […]

The War on Night People

, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Rarely does a political analyst stray from electoral politics–but this is war. And there’s a direct connection to politics. This war isn’t on terrorism; it’s on “night people”–the tens of millions of us who thrive at night and dread mornings every bit as much as Dracula. Based on personal observations in my 54 years, I’d […]

When the Levee Breaks

Looking at the Big Picture in the House

, U.Va. Center for Politics

Because one Crystal Ball analysis piece (We Were Merely Freshmen?) laced with references to popular music deserves another, we decided to take our readers back in time this week and tip our hat to an old blues song Led Zeppelin revived in 1971. The first lines should be familiar to many a Robert Plant die-hard […]

We Were Merely Freshmen?

GOP Hunts the House for One-Term Wonders in 2008

, U.Va. Center for Politics

As the Crystal Ball gazes into the future of Congress’s lower chamber beyond 2008, what should it consider? Should we read anything into the moderate success of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s early leadership? No, the elections are too far away for it to really matter. Forgive us as we turn our attention to popular music for […]