Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Friends,

November 21st, 2006

U.Va. Center for Politics

I hope that this Thanksgiving finds you in the best of spirits. As this thrilling election season winds down, I would like to take a moment to tell you more about the University of Virginia Center for Politics. I hope that our mission and activities might inspire you to include us in your philanthropic [...]

9th Annual American Democracy Conference

Center for Politics and The Hotline partner for Washington, DC event

November 21st, 2006

U.Va. Center for Politics, U.Va. Center for Politics

Elections are the seminal event in the life of our democracy. Not only do they set the direction of our republic, campaigns and elections help to shed light on America’s state of political health. It is altogether fitting then, that an examination of our democracy and its current state take place in conjunction with [...]

Post-Election 2006: Playing the Numbers Game

News networks recognize Crystal Ball success rate

November 10th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato Matt Smyth and David Wasserman, U.Va. Center for Politics

It’s been a long election season–seemingly much longer than midterms past–and your Crystal Ball is happy to have served our good readers right up until the end. As we mentioned in our final pre-election release, it’s been a wild ride as the dynamics of dozens of races have changed greatly from the spring to [...]

Election Eve 2006: The Final Predictions

November 6th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman, U.Va. Center for Politics

NOTE: Races we consider “Late Breakers”–those in which we have changed our outlook or prediction since Thursday–are denoted by arrows identifying the direction of momentum. Red arrows () indicate momentum for the Republican candidate, while blue arrows () signify momentum for the Democratic candidate.
Dear loyal readers,
What a wild ride it’s [...]

House Text for Cb Email

Campaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"

November 6th, 2006

Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman, U.Va. Center for Politics

Final House Predictions: The 20 Late Breakers

AZ-01 – Toss-up – Rep. Rick Renzi (R) will win reelection over Ellen Simon (D). The Crystal Ball knows that Renzi had no problem solidifying his base in the 2004 election, but it wasn’t all that long ago he scored a narrow open seat victory in this marginal [...]

Crystal Ball 2006: The Predictions

Campaigns Clamor for Last-Minute Midterm "Mo"

November 2nd, 2006

Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman, U.Va. Center for Politics

Just how Democratic a year is 2006?
Five days out, let’s rephrase the question this way: when’s the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?

We bet it’s never happened before, [...]